Time to be cautious on energy? The XLE is bumping up against heavy resistance this week. The 200 day moving average, which was supportive late last summer, is back in play. This is the first test of the 200D since the Oct. 11th breakdown.
Will the 50 day moving average continue to hold the lows? The February, March and April lows were marked by the 50D. A clear break below the initial April lows($65.60) would be a clear warning sign.
Top five XLE holdings: Exxon Mobil(XOM), Chevron(CVX), ConocoPhillips(COP), EOG Resources(EOG), Schlumberger(SLB).
XOM and CVX=40% of portfolio weighting.
At time of publication we are long XOM, CVX and SLB in some managed accounts.