The unemployment rate has reached its lowest levels since the late 1990’s.  Historically a dip below 4% has been a precursor to recessions:


How long til the next recessions begins?  Considering the length of the current economic expansion, which is approaching an all time record, this is an often asked question.


But, is the declining employment rate an indication of trouble ahead.  Not exactly.  If the rate continues to drop, which is likely considering the strong GDP projections, the next recession could be a long way off. 


Key takeaway, timing the next recession, as in the past, is nearly impossible. 

Hat tip Charlie Bilello, Ryan Detrick