Some Color:  Since 1975, the second quarter of the year has been by far gold’s worst—with returns dead flat over the 41-year period—and this year has been no exception, with gold down about 1%. On the flip side, the third quarter has been the best, outperforming its closest rival, Q4, by a whopping 40%.

Given the clear seasonal patterns gold has exhibited over the past four decades, investors can use these trends to make strategic purchases when the market is the weakest.

Microsoft Word - 170621_HAA_UOP_Gold_Seasonality_JG_edits_SJ_PRO

The GLD fell to new 2018 lows yesterday under heavy selling pressure.  The index retested its 40 week moving average, which had previously held a major low last December, during Monday’s sell off.  This morning Gold is rebounding nicely and may be in the early stages of a powerful new rally leg.  The seasonal patterns are certainly in line for this.


At time of publication we are long GLD in some managed accounts.