Great stuff here from Ryan Detrick:    The index was up 8.2% for the first half of the year (double the 4.1% average first-half return since 1950*). What happens now? Since 1950*, the second half of the year has been up 4.5% on average and higher 70.1% of the time. However, in the 25 other instances when the first half has been up more than 8% (like 2017), the second half return has been even stronger with an average 7.1% gain and positive returns 84.0% of the time (higher 21 out of 25 times). In other words, strength usually begets strength, and we believe a large second-half pullback is unlikely.


Hat tip Ryan Detrick,