The Ten Year Yield Index(TNX–X)has reached a crucial level. During the first quarter of this year the index broke through the upper band of a bearish channel that has been in place for thirty years. This quarter the index is testing its 50 quarter moving average. Since December of 1987 the 50Q mav has provided heavy resistance:
The Ten Year Yield will need to close above 2.913% to clear the 50Q mav for the first time since September of 1985. We have one week to go in the second quarter. A major bottom appears to be in place near 1.35%. A massive shift in interest rates may be just beginning, one that could last for many years.