Bonds Slipping

Bonds Slipping

The long end looks overextended. The TLT(20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund) is leaving behind an ominous spike high at last week’s peak. Last week the index set a new 2019 high as the rally off the 200D moving average(March low) extended to 13%. This week the TLT is...
“Roaring Back”

“Roaring Back”

June employment numbers came in better than expected. The Lede: Economists said Friday’s June jobs report showed a labor market that was “roaring back,” with the U.S. creating 224,000 jobs, easily beating the 170,000 forecast. More:  “The strong June jobs numbers...
Ten Year Story

Ten Year Story

The Ten Yield Index has not closed below 2%(weekly basis) since 11/4/16. The TNX(CBOE 10 Year Yield Index) is at new lows for the year. A weekly close below 2% would mark the lowest close since the week before the 2016 election(11/4/2016). The 10 Year Yield is now 40%...
After 9 Straight

After 9 Straight

Since the current tightening cycle began the Fed has raised rates 9 times. The market led everyone of the Fed rate increases since late 2015. As we enter the second half of 2019 the market fully expects a rate cut by the end of July. Hat tip Charlie...
Yields, A 2019 Story

Yields, A 2019 Story

Yields across most time frames have eased dramatically since November of 2018.  By no means was this expected.  In 2018 Goldman Sachs expected four rate hikes in 2019, the market is now pricing in two rate cuts.  Quite a change of course.  3-Mo: 2.41% –>...