Bond Story

Bond Story

Bonds had a strong initial reaction to this morning’s weaker than expected employment numbers.  Rates were down across the board but at mid day bonds are backing off the highs.  The AGG(iShares Barclays Aggregate Bond Fund) has returned to a major high during...
Yields, A 2019 Story

Yields, A 2019 Story

Yields across most time frames have eased dramatically since November of 2018.  By no means was this expected.  In 2018 Goldman Sachs expected four rate hikes in 2019, the market is now pricing in two rate cuts.  Quite a change of course.  3-Mo: 2.41% –>...
Tale Of The 10-Year

Tale Of The 10-Year

The above chart, or similar version, made the rounds a year ago.  The yield on the 10-Year Treasury closed above a very, very long term trendline as Q1 came to an end.  The consensus view that followed was that the ‘bear channel’ that had held rates in a...
The Inversion

The Inversion

There was a huge move in interest rates this week, especially in the long end.  The 1-Year Treasury is now yielding more than the 10-Year.  The last time this happened was in late 2005.  Before that Sept. 1998, and January 1989.  What happened next?   1) Dec ’05...