Tale Of The 10-Year

Tale Of The 10-Year

The above chart, or similar version, made the rounds a year ago.  The yield on the 10-Year Treasury closed above a very, very long term trendline as Q1 came to an end.  The consensus view that followed was that the ‘bear channel’ that had held rates in a...
The Inversion

The Inversion

There was a huge move in interest rates this week, especially in the long end.  The 1-Year Treasury is now yielding more than the 10-Year.  The last time this happened was in late 2005.  Before that Sept. 1998, and January 1989.  What happened next?   1) Dec ’05...
Bonds Look Toppy

Bonds Look Toppy

Bonds have backed off quite a bit from the highs of the week.  This morning’s solid GDP numbers are certainly adding selling pressure.  The IEF(iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Fund) is tracing out a key downside reversal on the weekly chart.  The...
Down To Zero

Down To Zero

After nine Fed rate hikes, which began in December 2015, the market believes the series is over and a pause is ahead.  Zero rate hikes are expected in 2019.  This is good news for investors.  A move to ease rates from current levels?  Not to good news. If you thought...
AGG Update

AGG Update

The iShares Barclays Aggregate Bond Fund continues to rally.  The index is working on its 5th straight higher low and is heading for its best close since April 11th.  The December 31st breakout was quite powerful leaving behind layers of support in its wake.  The $AGG...