“Roaring Back”

“Roaring Back”

June employment numbers came in better than expected. The Lede: Economists said Friday’s June jobs report showed a labor market that was “roaring back,” with the U.S. creating 224,000 jobs, easily beating the 170,000 forecast. More:  “The strong June jobs numbers...
After 9 Straight

After 9 Straight

Since the current tightening cycle began the Fed has raised rates 9 times. The market led everyone of the Fed rate increases since late 2015. As we enter the second half of 2019 the market fully expects a rate cut by the end of July. Hat tip Charlie...
Yields, A 2019 Story

Yields, A 2019 Story

Yields across most time frames have eased dramatically since November of 2018.  By no means was this expected.  In 2018 Goldman Sachs expected four rate hikes in 2019, the market is now pricing in two rate cuts.  Quite a change of course.  3-Mo: 2.41% –>...
The Long End is Extremely Overbought

The Long End is Extremely Overbought

The TLT(iShares 20+ Year US Treasury Bond Fund) has not been this overbought(based on RSI in multiple time frames) since the end of 2008.  As 2009 began the TLT dropped 25%.  In 2016, when TLT again reached similar overbought readings, the index fell 20% by the end of...
Bond(IEF) Update

Bond(IEF) Update

The IEF Index(iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Bond ETF) is dipping below last week’s low this morning.  Last week the IEF posted its best daily close of 2019.  The $107.00 area, which has now capped the March and May highs, is looking rather ominous.  In the near...