SPY & Commodities

With about 90 minutes to the close the S&P is testing yesterday’s highs.  Will the market sell off in the last 30 minutes?  Who knows.  The testing of the highs is a shadow on a candlestick chart that we referred to yesterday in our Tuesday  M48 video newsletter.  We added a little SPY and SSO in the managed accounts yesterday.  Friday should be an important day due to unemployment numbers being released.  The metals, GLD (gold) and SLV (silver) ETF’s are off our radar screen for now.   Crude is stuck in a range so we are sitting on the sidelines until we see a better pattern form for either the short (DUG) or the long (DIG).  We are watching WMT (Walmart) and currently have a small position in DLTR.  BIIB and AAPL may be added soon.

Profit Taking

Friday 7:15 am

We did a little  selling in the managed accounts yesterday just before the close to lock in profit prior to the weekend.  So far this morning the market seems to be taking its needed rest. The trendline still holds as does the 50 day moving on the major indexes.  No entry on the metals yet.  If GLD breaks below 88.75 – there will be no entry, period.  We have initiated a small position in the stock DLTR.  Check out a chart on www.BigCharts.com.  Never chase a stock or ETF if it is to far extended from its pivot (buy) point.

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Have a great weekend!

Increasing Exposure To S&P

The SPY closed above the 50 day moving average for the first time since early January.  We also closed above major overhead resistance at $ 80 per share on the SPY.  The market is overbought (to far to fast) but we must continue to ride the wave in the event it becomes more overbought.  We will be increasing our long position in the managed accounts and for our M48 subscribers over the next several days – hopefully on weakness (selling).   Technically I have my hand on the GLD (gold) trigger again.  It held up well today considering the rally in the equities.  

If you live in San Diego, you need to attend a Saturday “Hour of Financial Power” workshop.  Sign up on our site.  Seating is  limited to just 10 investors.  The workshops only run every other Saturday.

Inflation

The Fed prefers inflation vs. deflation based on yesterday’s bond purchase.  So what do we do with this news?  We continue to ride the wave of our commodity ETF’s (exchange traded funds).  Currently as of this post we are up 20% on our DIG position.   This is not a suggestion to add or initiate a new purchase.  Instead we move up our trailing stops to lock in profit.  We were stopped out of TBT (short bonds) for a small loss after the Fed’s announcement yesterday. That was the biggest move in the 10 year since 1962.  Our loss was very minimal.

Now for GLD (Gold).  For the past few weeks I said we would purchase GLD again if it approaches a new high.  I would like to see it move sideways prior to reaching that high which increases the probabilities of a breakout.   Our videos explain this in detail.

The S&P remains the bulk of our current exposure.  It the short term it remains overbought.  We will look to add on a pullback.  We have time stamped videos that you may view so you can further understand the probability patterns that I am referring to.

Sit in the Co-Pilot seat.

You can attend our next available workshop in Solana Beach on April 18th at 9 AM in our Solana Beach offices.  March 21rst and April 4th are filled.  These workshops are limited to 10 people and run for one hour.  -“Your Hour Of Financial Power”-  You will learn exactly how we time the market.  Remember we were out of the market for 9 out of 12 months in 2008.  

We are in the black for 2009.

You can register by calling 888-808-4472 or register via email at info@ProInvestorCoach.com.

Please leave your name, number and email so Anne can call to confirm.  We will also set you up for a 7 day trial of our screen captured, time stamped market videos.  This is a great way to learn. 

Enjoy every day!

Playing The Fade

So now we wait to see if the S&P pulls in (drops or fades) a little and holds.  As of this post the DIG (long oil) postion is working as is the TBT (short bonds).  No need to add or initiate any new positions yet. 

Join us for our next available FREE workshop in Solana Beach on Saturday April 18th.  March 21rst and April 4th are filled.  You can register online at info@proinvestorcoach.com or leave your name and number at 888-808-4472.  Seating is very limited.  You can also drop us an email and we will set you up with a 7 day trial to our M48 Timing Service.  You will receive time stamped videos that correspond to our trade recommendations.   We give you the fish and teach you to fish at the same time.

Stepping In

The M48 will be initiating a position today before the close in the SPY.  I prefer to see the market pull in and hold the low of last week before we increase the percentage long.  However, in the event this is a V bottom we cannot afford to let the train get to far from the station.   Overhead resistance is just ahead.  Let’s see how it reacts if and when it get there.  If this fails we will exit w/ an acceptable loss.

Education is the fuel that drives our business model. Check out our next in house workshop on Sat. April 4th at 9am in our Solana Beach offices located at 444 S. Cedros # 250.   The workshop will illustrate the unique tools that we incorporate to manage individual accounts and the M48 Timing Service.  These methods have saved or clients and subscribers from Wall Street’s wealth destruction.

The workshops fill up quick.  Register today at info@ProInvestorCoach.com or call (888)-808-4472.

Volume

Currently looking to confirm increased volume.  Back tomorrow with decision.  DIG (long oil) is working so far which was sent out to our subscribers as an optional trade Tuesday night.  Some of our subscribers did some light buying of the SPY Tuesday

These are not recommendations and should be viewed for educational purposes only.

Bottom?

Financials bounce huge-

It my last post in line one I said our next move will be to put some of this cash to work in the S&P when the M48 Timing Model gives us a green light.  That green light may come this week.  Yesterday’s close might have been a temporary bottom.  Do I think it’s a final bottom? NO.  Do I think we could rally huge from here? Yes.  Remember as trend followers we want to ride the wave and forget the noise. 

Price and Volume along with Pattern Recognition is our edge.  If we are wrong we exit w/ an acceptable loss.  It’s OK to be wrong (using protective stops to limit loss and capture gains).  It’s not OK to stay wrong (buy and hold as the market tanks).

NOW MORE THAN EVER MARKET TIMIING IS PARAMOUNT

If you still held a position is GLD you were stopped out.  Also in the last post I said to sit tight with new purchases in the metal unless GLD approached 100 (roughly 1000 an ounce) at which time we would re-access the potential breakout (based on probabilities) to a new high.  As of yesterday and more importantly today -I’m beginning to see further technical damage in GLD especially if this equity rally is real.  GLD was a profitable trade along with SLV (silver) in February.  Just another example of why not to buy and hold, but instead to buy and sell.

Watching TBT (short bonds) along w/ DIG (long oil).  Remember we dumped DIG at 28+ and 30+ with a nice profit.  Today’s close on DIG was 20.05.  The M48 had a decent gain in TBT during January.  We gave some of that back recently.  We are still net ahead in our TBT trades.  Our recent stop in TBT was probably to close.  Time will tell. These TBT and DIG potential positions can be tricky (in and out) so view this for educational purposes only and not as trade recommendations.

EDUCATION:

Education is the fuel that drives our business model. Check out our next in house workshop on Sat. April 4th at 9am in our Solana Beach offices located at 444 S. Cedros # 250.   The workshop will illustrate the unique tools that we incorporate to manage individual accounts and the M48 Timing Service.  These methods have saved or clients and subscribers from Wall Street’s wealth destruction.

The workshops fill up quick.  Register today at info@ProInvestorCoach.com

GLD

The M48 Timing Model continues to sit in mostly cash waiting for a confirmed buy signal in the S&P or Nasdaq.  The model often adds small positions in various individual stocks and ETF’s (exchange traded funds).  However, the bulk of the model is always made up of the S&P for diversification and simplicity.  Simple stuff works.  Complicated stuff breaks.

GLD (gold) and SLV (silver) bounced off their 50 day moving averages which is a good sign.  One bounce off the 50 is good.  More than one lowers the probabilities of a move higher.  If GLD holds 88 and change it most likely will test the old highs of 99+ and based on probabilities bust out to new highs. 

So what does this mean.  I prefer to wait for a clearer chart pattern closer to 100 (1,000 an ounce on the April futures contract) if it gets there.  If you are already in GLD place your stop in the 88 or 89 range.  Friday’s close was 92.29 so the risk is tight at around 4%.  The M48 Timing Model has already exited GLD and SLV with a profit.  I have no problem getting back in if a high probability pattern occurs.  You can learn these various patterns at our workshops.

This is not a recommendation.  Read this for educational purposes only.

The M48 exited UUP with a break-even.  The trade appeared to be running out of steam.  The trade may still work and the risk is minimal.  However, I think we’ll get a bigger bang for the buck elsewhere.

Next Workshop

Our March 21rst workshop is now full.  The workshops will focus primarily on pattern recognition using charts.  The next available workshop will be Saturday April 4th in our Solana Beach offices located at 444 S. Cedros # 250.  To register please call (888) 808-4472 or email your name and number to info@ProInvestorCoach.com

Need I Say More

I found this on Market Watch-

Wall Street’s dollar menu
GE       3/5/08: $33.55     Today: $6.66
BAC     3/5/08: $37.55     Today: $3.17
GM      3/5/08: $22.97     Today: $1.86
C         3/5/08: $22.15     Today: $1.02
AIG     3/5/08: $44.61     Today: $0.35

This is why you don’t buy and hold.  Cheap stocks typically get cheaper.

Current positions:

Stopped out of TBT (short bonds) with a little less than a $2.00 per share loss for a total loss of less than $200 to the M48.   Small losses are part of the game.  It”s OK to be wrong – it’s not OK to stay wrong.  The M48 Timing Model still holds a small position in UUP (long the US dollar).  UUP is just above breakeven.  I will let you know if it turn out to be a winner or loser.

So the M48 Timing Model is very close to 100% cash.  Remember we said that if we broke 810 on the S&P to go to cash with the option of shorting with a small amount using the SDS.  The S&P closed today at 683 which is 16% lower than 810. 

When the M48 Timing Model is wrong we take a small loss by using stops to preserve capital.  When we are right we use trailing stops to lock in profit.  Price and volume along with pattern recognition is our edge.

These are not recommendations but instead observations for educational purposes.

FREE WORKSHOP SOON!

The next Pro Investor Coach workshop will be held on Saturday March 21rst at 9 am in our Solana Beach offices located at 444 S. Cedros Ave # 250.  The workshop is free – however seating is very limited.  One hour in length and no selling.  The secret to thrive in a volatile market is proper education.

If you would like to attend please leave your name and number at  (888)-808-4472 or email us at info@proinvestorcoach.com

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Welcome fellow traders and investors!

As Money Managers and Traders, the mission of our Blog and Radio Show is to go on record and further educate our readers and listeners in technical analysis and proper money management across all asset classes.

Our methods are not the traditional advice you hear repeated and repackaged over and over again, but that’s exactly the point and the reason why we know how to advance and prosper in every kind of market.

To Your Success,

Doug & Gary