Two Gaps on QCOM…

4 Minute Trader for 3/29/10

Trend: Long (buy) 

SPY close today: 117.35

Stop price: 112.22

401K: 50% long/ 50% cash 

Comments: 

Potential mini head and shoulders (bearish) pattern.  This would be nullified if the SPY closes above today’s high.

The trend line and trend remains in tact as of the close.

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 We never know when the trend will end which is why we stick with it until it changes.  With just one symbol you can be diversified and easily manage your own money in just 4 minutes per day.

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SPY mini H&S?

A potential Head & Shoulders in the SPY is still possible.

1150?

Looks like the SPX wants to test 1150 again. Gold and Crude remain range bound. If the 10 year gets above 4% – we’ll look at TBT.

The trend line on the major three is still holding up.

Jobs…

The trend changed from short to long this week as the market closed above the 2/22/10 candle.  The big day was 2/25 as the market recovered intra-day.  The trend could change back to short quickly if we break down through 1085 on the SPX.  It could also double top at 1150.  But for now it’s a confirmed uptrend.

We’ll stick w/ our forecast that a top is between 1100 and 1200 on the SPX.  Was 1150 the top on 1/19?

Don’t know and won’t know until after the fact.

GLD closed above 110.50 which is a bullish sign.

Jobs tomorrow.

The Force…

The force (manipulation) keeping this market up certainly is not the fundamentals.  Thursday was an impressive (recovery) day after a gap down at the open. 

I still see the trend as short as of the 2/26/10 close.   I also think we’ll trade higher next week. 

How high? Don’t know.  We have been hedging our short position  and will increase that hedge with a close above the 50 day using tight stops.  I see gold as a buy again with a close above 1130-1135.

Long bonds provided the 10 year stays under 4%.

Will increase short exposure w/ a close below 1078 on the SPX.

Should be streaming radio with live charts over the net hopefully soon.

Stay tuned.

 

Manage your own money:

Follow me free for three weeks just using the SPY (long S&P) and SH (short S&P) at www.antiWallStreetGuy.com

Depth…

The speed and depth of this drop (confirmed correction as of  1/22/10) will weigh heavily on the odds of 1150 holding as a top.

Even though short covering along w/a trade the dip bounce  should occur next week – 1050 certainly looks like a near term target on the S&P.

Looking for a place to add to “SH” (S&P short).  Our current stop is w/in 5%.

Good support on the SPX at 1000 and then 950.  Obviously don’t know if this will occur – but I’d like to see it.

Trend…

Trend line is broke.  5o day is broke.  Some support is broke. We are right at a trend change. 

www.antiWallStreetGuy.com

VIX…

The VIX is very low.  Commodities continue to work.    A close above 3.9% and certainly 4% will continue to spell trouble for treasuries.  Therefore TBT. 

GLD looks OK but the chart is not jumping off the page.  Crude broke out.  Retail numbers next week – let’s see if the equities hold up.

Good And Not So Good…

As of today’s close oil still looks weak.  The financials are similar to the extent that they are still trading below the 50 day with mucho resistance above.

Bonds took a hit today as the 10 year closed above 3.6%.  We are long TBT (short bonds).

We have moved our stop above entry on UUP (long the dollar).

In the managed accounts we added IWM last week and may add VTI (broke out w/ volume today).

GLD was dumped at 114.70 and 108.37.  We may play a bounce  if it gets to 105 (support).  Today’s close was 106.95.  The shorts may cover tomorrow in GLD.

A close above 112 on the SPY would signal another bull move.  The QQQQ gave us that signal today.

You can’t,  nor should you fight the tape – but also keep a good chunk of cash at these levels.

When it’s all said and done – without jobs you have no reason for a sustainable rally.

A chart of ’37 through ’44 looks just like what we have today.  Make sure you or your adviser has the discipline to play this market in both directions using stops.

The option trades we have at Heritage are 69 wins and 6 losses as of 12/18/09

Merry Christmas

-Doug

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