March Jobs Disappoint

The lede:  This morning’s employment report for March showed a 103K increase in total nonfarm payrolls, which was worse than forecasts. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. The consensus was for 193K new jobs and the unemployment rate to drop to 4.0%.


More detail here from Jill Mislinski:

Unemployment Benefits Continue To Fall


Key bit:   The total number of people receiving unemployment benefits fell to the lowest level in 44 years in March, the Department of Labor reported Thursday in more good news about the economy.

Altogether, 1.8 million people got unemployment insurance benefits toward the end of March, the smallest such seasonally-adjusted number since the end of December 1973, when the workforce was much smaller and there were fewer people to be laid off. Benefits are available for up to 26 weeks in most states.

As for new weekly jobless claims, Thursday’s report showed first-time applications rising 24,000 to 242,000. That was a bit of a miss: Forecasters had expected new jobless claims to rebound to 230,000 after falling to the lowest level in 45 years the week before.

Rollbacks matter…

Read the whole thing:

Looking Ahead To Tomorrow’s Jobs Report

From the desk of Brian Gilmartin:   The March ’18 jobs number is reported Friday morning before the bell and expectations of 170,000 to 180,000 of “net new jobs” created by the US economy is subdued since March job creation has historically been below-average.

February ‘18’s job creation was 313,000 which was quite sizable, relative to the 200,000 expected.

The key metrics to the jobs report are “net new jobs created” and “average hourly earnings”.

The ADP report yesterday showed stronger-than-expected job growth, this morning’s jobless claims showed weaker-than-expected claims data (more people filing for unemployment).

Let’s see what tomorrow holds. Watch the 10-year Treasury yield.

Hat tip

Eyeing A Bottom In Exxon Mobil


Following a disappointing fourth quarter earnings report shares of Exxon Mobil went into the tank.  Six straight loses later the stock was off 17% from the February 1st peak leaving an ominous spike high behind in the process.  XOM has drifted lower since the initial post earnings flush but further downside has been limited.  Despite the easing downside momentum the stock did put lower monthly lows in March and April.  But as this week progresses some positive signs are developing. 

Trading Notes:

XOM made a new 2018 low on Monday.  At mid day(+1.2%)the stock is trading above last week’s high, a close tomorrow above $75.00 would complete a key upside reversal in the weekly charts.

A divergent low has been building in the daily MACD indicator for the last six weeks.

Selling pressure has been easing since Feb. 23(Friday).

XOM is bumping up against a very solid supply area(2017 lows-3/7 breakdown gap).  This is the first real overhead challenge for the stock since the beginning of March. 

A clear take out of the $76.00 area would be very encouraging.

On the downside, a close back below $74.00 would indicate more basing is ahead.

We are long XOM in most managed accounts.




The Final Push

risk missing out

They love ’em higher…

Interesting chart from

Dividend Growth Strong In Q1

From the desk of Charlie Bilello:  S&P 500 1st quarter dividends rose 9.1% over the prior year, strongest growth since Q2 2015:


Hat tip Charlie Bilello

Deere Dives, Approaches Low Risk Buy Zone


Deere & Co. began today’s session with a nasty news inspired gap lower open.  The stock has rebounded a bit this afternoon but quite a bit of damage has been done.  Shares hit new ’18 lows in the early going as the stock continues to struggle after leaving behind an ominous spike high in mid February(earnings).  If DE remains heavy in the near term a very low risk entry opportunity will develop for patient investors.

Trading notes: 

At today’s early lows DE is off over 17% from the 2018 spike high left behind immediately following the last earnings report.

Just below today’s low is a major support zone near $141.00. 

This key area is marked by the 200 day moving average, which held important lows in September 2016 and August of 2017.

Also in this zone is the powerful high volume breakout gap left behind after the November 22nd earnings report.

We believe a retest of this area will offer an extremely low buying opportunity.  On the downside a close back below $138.00 would send a clear sign that a more prolonged basing process is ahead.

At time of publication we are long DE in some managed accounts.



Strongest Manufacturing Jobs Growth In Years

Firms across the U.S. added 241,000 workers last month, according to ADP and Moody’s Analytics

The lede:   Hiring at private U.S. employers grew more than expected in March, according to a report, as the manufacturing industry showed the strongest increase in more than three years.

Firms across the country added 241,000 workers in March, according to payroll processor Automatic Data Processing Inc. and forecasting firm Moody’s Analytics.

Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had expected the addition of 200,000 jobs.

“The job market is rip-roaring,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics. “The tight labor market continues to tighten.”
We were told these jobs would never come back.   Just the suggestion that they could got you mocked: 


Rollbacks matter.

Hat tip

Read the whole thing:

Nas 100 Futures


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