The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow Forecast

Remains at 4.5%:

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Quite a jump from the Obama years which had an average annual GDP growth of 1.48% during two terms… the only President to have not had even one year of 3% GDP growth:

 

20170127_GDP_Obama2_0

 

Rollbacks matter…

Hat tip Zerohedge.com

Opinion: The next bear market in stocks will spark a retirement crisis

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-next-bear-market-in-stocks-will-spark-a-retirement-crisis-2018-06-27

Eight Straight Weekly Gains For The Russell 2000 Index

Is this a signal for continued strength in the large caps(S&P 500 Index)?  Actually, it is.  The S&P 500 moved higher 6 months later 9 of the last 9 times the Russell 2000 has had a similar run:

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Impressive data.

Hat tip Ryan Detrick of LPL Research

Crude

Daily Chart of Crude.  On a tear for two weeks.

Screen Shot 2018-06-27 at 10.18.07 AM

Five Year Decline

C9KX_Chart2

Is this right time to be long commodities?  We believe exposure to this sector should be part of a diversified portfolio. 

Hat tip  Columbia Management

 

New Lows, Again

The Bloomberg Agriculture Index continues to fall…

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A huge opportunity will develop here.  Timing a bottom is near impossible but it will happen. 

Hat tip The Daily Shot

Sweet Spot

At least for the next month, it doesn’t get much better:

Dgo5C91U0AAktrK

Hat tip Bespoke Research

Volatility is Back

This comes as no surprise.  After an extremely quiet 2017, market volatility has come roaring back.

From the desk of Charlie Bilello:   In 2017, there were only 12 days with >1% intra-day move, the fewest in history.  Yesterday was the 68th day thus far in 2018.

Dgjy7flUYAA0Jvo

Volatility=Opportunity

Hat tip Pension Partners

A Plan For Prudential

pru

Prudential Financial reached a new all-time high in January of this year after a powerful rally off the September 2017 lows.  In early February PRU was under extremely heavy pressure after leaving behind an ominous weekly downside reversal as January came to the close.  The stock has been struggling since as the 200 day moving average provided strong resistance.  In early May a fresh down leg began(post earnings)that eventually drove shares below the 2017 lows.  At mid year PRU is beginning to show signs of a major bottom.  For patient investors a very low risk buying opportunity is developing.

Trading notes:  The weekly MACD indicator has returned to oversold levels.  The daily MACD has been tracing out a divergent low since February.

Selling pressure has eased of late despite shares sitting close to multi-year lows.

The major support zone just below current levels includes the 2013, 2014 and 2015 highs($94.30-$92.60).  The 2018 low was set last month($94.50).

PRU’s 40 week moving average rests just above $92.00.  The last time PRU tested the 40W was back in September of 2016, a major low.

We consider PRU a low risk buy between $95.00 and $92.00.  A close below $90.00 would be a clear warning sign.

At time of publication we do not have a position in PRU.

 

 

PFE

Screen Shot 2018-06-26 at 7.55.53 AM

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Doug & Gary