Under The Surface

No question, last week’s jobs report was a disappointment.  But, below the headlines wages showed a sharp improvement:



The increase in wages on a 3-month basis was the highest in years.

Hat tip Jesse Felder

Lightening Rising


From Strategypage.com  Capt. Andrew “Dojo” Olson performs aerial maneuvers flying the F-35A Lightning II during the Wings Over South Texas air show at Naval Air Station Kingsville, Texas, March 24, 2018. The F-35 is the world’s most technologically advanced fifth-generation fighter aircraft. (U.S. Air Force photo by Airman 1st Class Alexander Cook)

Just How Wild Was Last Week?

Last week was extremely volatile.  Ryan Detrick puts the wild action in perspective:

The S&P 500 dropped 2% on both Monday and Friday, but was up the other three days of the week.

Last time that happened was October 1937.

Hat tip LPL Research


A close above 175 would be good.  Want to see it hold 165.

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An Ominous Sign?


The grey areas above mark recessions.  Interesting…

Quote of the Day

“Everyone understands the things that happen within two standard deviations, but everything important in financial history takes place outside of two standard devisations.” – R. Kayne

Hat tip Jim O’Shaughnessy

Tim Tebow Talks Life

Extremely special stuff.  We could use a few more Tim Tebow type role models.


A Wild Week Comes To An End

This year has been a volatile one for stocks.  This comes as no surprise.  Last week was particularly wild.  The SMH(Semiconducter Index)reached new April lows.  Without a late bounce Friday the S&P 500 Index would have closed below its 200 day moving average for the second time this week.  The Dow 30 Industrials swung nearly 1,300 points between Monday’s low to Thursday’s high.  Underneath this nervous action is a very solid earnings backdrop.  

From LPL Rersearch:   The trampoline finally broke on the S&P 500 Index’s 200-day moving average, which had held firm since the Brexit vote in June 2016. Technology and trade were again the culprits, as they have been through this latest bout of volatility over the past couple of weeks. In response to Monday’s market decline, John Lynch noted, “Amid the recent weakness in stocks, manufacturing sector data showed activity levels near decade highs, while expectations for first quarter S&P 500 earnings growth are for an increase of over 17.0%.” Market fundamentals still look pretty good.

More:  As the stock market bottoming process continues, here is what we think investors should focus on:   www.LPLResearch.com

As always, great stuff from LPL.  Hat tip Ryan Detrick

Snowy Chinook


From Strategypage.com:  A CH-47 Chinook helicopter prepares to land and insert New York Army National Guard Soldiers, into their landing zone, Java Center, N.Y., March 10, 2018. Soldiers will spend two days training in harsh conditions on reconnaissance tactics, utilizing infiltration and exfiltration techniques by helicopter. (U.S. Air National Guard photo by Staff Sgt. Ryan Campbell)



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