Over The Korean Peninsula


A USAF B-1B strategic bomber in formation with South Korean fighter-bombers and USMC F-35Bs.

U.S. Air Force and Marine Corps aircraft conduct a mission with the South Korean air force over the Korean Peninsula, Sept. 18, 2017. The bilateral forces conducted the mission in response to North Korea’s intermediate-range ballistic missile launch Sept. 14. Army photo by Staff Sgt. Steven Schneider

Escalation is a two way street. 

Hat tip strategypage.com/Austin Bay


Year to Date Performance

ytd etf performance

SPY(S&P 500 Index)  +13.4%

IWM(Russell 2000 Index)  +6.9%

UUP(US Dollar Index)  –9.8%

TLT(US 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund)  +7.5%

GLD(Gold Index)  +13.4%

USO(Crude Oil Index)  –13.6%


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Trouble Ahead?

As highlighted earlier this month September happens to be the weakest month of the year for S&P 500 returns.  So far September has proven to be quite positive but the weakest part of the month is just now beginning.  A lot can happen over the next two weeks:


Hat tip Ryan Detrick

JP Morgan Is Headed For New Highs


Continued weakness in the bond market has given the financial sector quite a boost as a new week begins.  Shares of JP Morgan are moving well after opening today’s session with an upside gap.  The largest of the money center banks is up over 1.3% and is setting up for a run into new 52 week high territory. 

JPM is trading at new September highs at mid day as it extends the rally off this month’s low to over 5%.  Earlier this month the stock dipped down to its 200 day moving average after major resistance near the $94.00 area capped the August high.  This was the third monthly peak in this zone since the March top.  The hold near the 200 day following the most recent pullback from the $94.00 area was very encouraging.  Now that shares have mounted a solid rebound from the 200 day layers of support are in place. 

In the near term we expect JPM to retest 2017 highs.  As this develops the stock is trading near a very low risk buy zone.  The first layer support runs from the initial September peak of $92.35 to last week’s high of $91.70.  JPM still has an important hurdle to clear but once the $95.00 level is convincingly taken out the stock will have room to run.  On the downside, a close back below $90.00 would indicate the heavy supply zone near the 2017 highs is still in control.  Until then JPM will remain on solid footing.

At time of publication we are long JPM in some managed accounts.   

Crude (Monthly)

Each candle represents a month.  Possibly a run to resistance at 60.   However, if it takes out 42 on a close, then I think an eventual 30 handle.

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Peace in Our Time

The last four trading sessions were the most peaceful in history:


Of note, twelve of the top 20 low volatility streaks have occurred in 2017, and there’s over three months left in the year.  Something’s gotta give.

Like maybe a 3% correction?  Well, maybe not, the streak continues: 


We live in interesting times.

Hat tip Charlie Bilello


The Verge of History

The lede, from Zerohedge.com:  U.S. stocks have risen more in the past eight years than in almost any other post-World War II time of economic growth, as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research.


More:   The logic here is that economic expansions fuel bull markets and so it’s reasonable to measure market recoveries after a period of macro contraction ends.

Using that definition, let’s review how the S&P 500 has performed during the last ten economic recoveries. To be precise, the birth of the stock market’s bull market is dated as the first day after an NBER-defined recession has ended. The market run continues through the peak.

The S&P 500 Index jumped 172 percent from July 2009, when the current expansion started, through Wednesday. The biggest advance was about 300 percent and occurred from April 1991 to March 2001, when Internet-related stocks soared.
Read the whole thing:  www.zerohedge.com

Texas Instruments Reaches New Highs


Texas Instruments has been moving steadily higher on heavy trade since today’s opening bell.  As the week comes to a close the stock is testing its 2017 highs as the rally off the August lows continues.  TXN is about to clear a very heavy resistance band and is setting up well for more upside.  A follow-through move next week could usher in a powerful fresh rally leg. 

After suffering an ugly downside reversal in early June TXN began a steep pullback.  By the end of the month the stock had taken out its March, April and May lows before reaching major support near its 200 day moving average.  By the time the $76.00 area was tested TXN was back in deeply oversold territory.  The stock formed a very solid base here and by the second week of July it was clear the first re test of the 200 day moving average since February of 2016 was a success.  The rebound that followed carried shares all the way back up to the 2017 highs but the heavy resistance in this area limited further upside. 

Today TXN is mounting another assault on the $84.00 area.  If this zone can be convincingly taken out the stock has plenty of room to run.  The stock has a solid support zone in place from the $84.00 to $83.00 area.  A close back below $81.00 would violate this week’s low indicating more range bound trade is ahead before a fresh rally leg can take hold.

At the time of publication we are long TXN in most managed accounts.




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