All Good

Just about everything, U.S. stock wise, hit new all time highs today:

new highs

Hat tip Charlie Bilello

Two Years in the Making

Amazon’s destruction of the entire retail sector has intensified over the last two years:

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Since July 2015:

AMZN  +116%

Retail ETF(XRT)  -19%

Simply stunning.  Hat tip Charlie Bilello

 

30 Years is a Long Time

All smiles…

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The lede:   Stock markets go up and down: It is a fact of life. Except in 2017.

Three major stock-market benchmarks in the U.S., Europe and Asia have avoided pullbacks this year, commonly defined as 5% declines from recent highs. Never in at least the past 30 years have all three indexes—the S&P 500, MSCI Europe and MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan—gone a calendar year without falling at some point by at least 5%.

Read the whole thing:   https://www.wsj.com

Hat tip LPL Research

 

PFE

Screen Shot 2017-07-19 at 7.50.08 AM

The Bezos Recession?

The extremely broad weakness in the retail sector, thanks largely to Amazon, could spark an economic downturn, the lede:   “There is a possibility that a retail collapse could spill over into the commercial real estate market—a somber second-act to the residential housing crisis that is now almost a decade in the rear-view mirror.”

More here from The American Interest:  https://www.the-american-interest.com/2017/07/17/the-bezos-recession/

AMZN (Weekly)

Could be breaking out again on this Weekly Chart

Screen Shot 2017-07-18 at 9.59.57 AM

Confusion Reigns

With both AAII(American Association of Individual Investors)bullish and bearish sentiment below 30 its quite clear why we are experiencing the quietest market(lack of volatility)ever.   Bull and bear sentiment below 30, which has been the case for the last three weeks, has only been this low two other times in the last 30 years.  Yes, there is a ton of investor confusion out there. 

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.3%
BULLISH
28.2%
-1.3
Percentage point
change from
last week
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.4%
NEUTRAL
42.1%
+1.6
Percentage point
change from
last week
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.3%
BEARISH
29.6%
-0.2
Percentage point
change from
last week

 

Note: Numbers may not add up to 100% because of rounding.Hat tip Ryan Detrick, AAII.com

T

Screen Shot 2017-07-17 at 3.06.02 PM

Another Subprime Boom

This time in autos, not houses.  The lede: 

It’s classic subprime: hasty loans, rapid defaults, and, at times, outright fraud.

Only this isn’t the U.S. housing market circa 2007. It’s the U.S. auto industry circa 2017.

A decade after the mortgage debacle, the financial industry has embraced another type of subprime debt: auto loans. And, like last time, the risks are spreading as they’re bundled into securities for investors worldwide.

Subprime car loans have been around for ages, and no one is suggesting they’ll unleash the next crisis. But since the Great Recession, business has exploded. In 2009, $2.5 billion of new subprime auto bonds were sold. In 2016, $26 billion were, topping average pre-crisis levels, according to Wells Fargo & Co.

800x-1

Read the whole thingwww.bloomberg.com

Corporate Buybacks Powering The Bull

buy backs

Corporate buybacks versus Institutional purchases, stunning to say the least. 

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