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Can You See 1987?

sp 500 total return

Neither can I.  Great chart above, a very long term view of the S&P 500’s total returns.  I vividly remember being on the floor during the 1987 crash, standing just outside the S&P 500 futures pit at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. If felt like stocks were going to zero. That monstrous October 19th flush(-22.6%)is barely a blip.

The details:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_(1987)

The Most Peaceful Market In History

The VIX(Volatility Index)finished last week at its lowest level in history.  Fear has been completely eradicated:

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Hat tip Charlie Bilello

Embrace The Decline

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For your weekend reading pleasure, great stuff here from Thomas Heath:  A First Lesson on the Stock Market, Don’t Run From a Good Sale

Here’s the link:  www.washingtonpost.com

Hat tip LPL Research

Quite A Streak

On Friday the Nasdaq Composite closed with a slight loss ending an impressive winning streak at 10 straight gains.

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What happens next?  Well, usually the tech heavy index continues higher.  Key bit:

On Thursday (July 20) the Nasdaq closed in the green for the tenth day in a row. This is significant, as history would suggest near-term strength could continue. In fact, since 1980, the Nasdaq has gained 2.6% on average during the month following a 10-day win streak versus an average monthly return of 1.0%. Looking at this same period, three months later things became more normal. Over the next several weeks though, the bulls could still be in charge.

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And, if you think the technology sector has become extremely overextended during the current nine year bull cycle, no need to worry based on inflation adjusted data:

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Hat tip LPL Research/Ryan Detrick

 

 

They Love Obamacare

It should be no surprise that the major health insurance providers were big time proponents of Obamacare right from the get go. How could they not?  The government enacts a low that forces people to buy your product.  Makes sense your company would do well, right?  Very well actually:

ACA health care stocks

The big losers, the folks that footed the bill, the middle class.

Hat tip Charlie Bilello

The Best Performing Sectors in 2017

sector perfomance 2017

Energy and Telecom have been lagging badly.  A good place to look for deeply oversold stocks with healthy rebound potential in the second half of the year.

XOM

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Voting With Their Feet

And its good news for moving companies.  Key bit:   Illinois’ surging debts, rising property taxes, weak job creation and political dysfunction continue to be a boon to large moving companies United Van Lines and Atlas Van Lines. United and Atlas offer large shipment moves across the country for households and businesses. According to 2016 shipment data released by the two moving companies, Illinois has the worst “outbound” rate for total shipments in the entire country.

The democrats in Chicago run this financial hell hole of a state. 

United-Atlas-moving_Graphic-1-1024x472

And the financials for the state will certainly get much worse before they get better.  The geese that lay the golden eggs(taxes)are fleeing, en masse:

United-Atlas-moving_Graphic-4-1024x933

While this is transpiring, Illinois has the highest paid state workers in the nation.  As a wise man once said “Math is hard”:

cost of living gov workers

More:  According to Census migration data, from July 2015 – July 2016 Illinois lost a record 114,000 people in net migration to other states, causing the total state population to contract by 37,500 people. The rate of people fleeing Illinois has been at all-time highs for the past three years of data, resulting in a total state population contracting for three consecutive years. The sheer magnitude of outflow should trouble policymakers in Illinois, as Illinois’ loss rate is multiples of surrounding states even after adjusting for population size, and Illinois is the only shrinking state in the Midwest.

What a total disaster…

Read the whole thing:  www.illinoispolicy.org

 

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you are here

Great chart from Ryan Detrick

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