As of the June 15th close our Tactical Opportunity Strategy is up 30.3% in 2020(net of fees), versus a loss of 5% for the S&P 500 Index.
Since inception(Jan. 1, 2017) the T.O. Strategy is up 112% versus a 37% gain for the SP 500 Index. We have outperformed the S&P 500 Index by 75%(after fees).
Early Stage Refueling
Despite a strong move off the March 23rd low, our data suggests that we are still in the early innings of this stock market recovery. In fact, the 44% upward advance in stock prices, prior to last week’s brief 6-7% pullback, was in line with the initial 2009 stock market recovery of 43.4%. Those investors that invested after missing the first stage of the 2009 stock market recovery enjoyed a 4-year forward return on the S&P 500 of +105.72%.
The only difference between today and June of 2009 is that the supply of money cheap money is exponentially higher, inflation is lower, and the individual companies we are focused on are healthier. Based on that data, do you think stocks will move higher or lower? We suspect the path is materially higher.