After five days of trading the S&P 500 Index is up 2.8% for the year.

It has started a year with a 2% or better gain fifteen times.

Every year this has happened(15 for 15)the Index has gone on to gain just over 18.5% on average for the year.  


Impressive.  The interesting data point in the above table is the depth of the deepest pullback during each year.  The smallest being 5.8% in 2013, the largest being 33.5% in 1987.  The average intra-year decline is just under 20%.  As mentioned earlier, the S&P 500 Index hasn’t suffered as much as a 5% pullback in over 350 trading days, that’s the 3rd longest such streak in history.  With a little patience we expect to see many entry opportunities during the year.  Volatility will make a welcome return.

Hat tip Ryan Detrick of LPL Research