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The economic mover and shaker this week is Friday’s employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This monthly report contains a wealth of data for economists, the most publicized being the month-over-month change in Total Nonfarm Employment (the PAYEMS series in the FRED repository). Today we have the ADP September estimate of 135K new nonfarm private employment jobs, a decrease over August’s 228K, which was a downward revision of 9K.

The 135K estimate came in above the consensus of 125K for the ADP number.

The forecast for the forthcoming BLS report is for 90K nonfarm new jobs (the actual PAYEMS number) and the unemployment rate to remain at 4.4%.


Fixed income, long and short end(TLT/IEF), has been weak since reaching new 2017 highs four weeks ago.  Bonds have been reacting to stronger economic numbers, tomorrow’s data is likely more of the same.

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