Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

From Germany to Mexico

How America’s Source of Immigrants Has Changed Over A Century

Nearly 59 million immigrants have arrived in the United States since 1965, making the nation the top destination in the world for those moving from one country to another. Mexico, which shares a nearly 2,000-mile border with the U.S., is the source of the largest wave of immigration in history from a single country to the United States.

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Fascinating.  Read the whole thing:  www.pewresearch.org

 

 

Unemployment Drops in October

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Rollbacks Matter…

The lede:   U.S. employers hired at a strong pace in October, and revisions showed the labor market weathered hurricane damage better than previously estimated.

Nonfarm payrolls rose a seasonally adjusted 261,000 in October, a pickup from the prior month, the Labor Department said Friday.

The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%, its lowest level since December 2000.

More here from WSJ.com: https://www.wsj.com

Consumer Confidence Soars(Rollbacks Matter)

The lede from CNBC:
Consumers were even more optimistic in October than economists polled by Reuters expected.

Consumer confidence rose to 125.9 in October, according to the Conference Board.

The index “increased to its highest level in almost 17 years,” Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board, said in a statement. That was in December 2000, when the index hit 128.6.

The surge in confidence comes at a time when U.S. share prices have hit record highs. Stocks have been lifted by strong economic growth, a surge in corporate earnings and increasing expectations of tax reform. On Tuesday, stocks traded slightly higher, near all-time highs.
More herewww.cnbc.com/video

Stay The Course

From Fidelity Investments:  

When the stock market tanks, it’s only human to want to run for shelter due to our inherent aversion to suffering losses. And it can certainly feel better to stop putting additional money to work in the market. But the best investors understand their time horizon, financial capacity for losses, and emotional tolerance for market ups and downs, and they maintain an allocation of stocks they can live with in good markets and bad.

Remember the financial crisis of late 2008 and early 2009, when stocks dropped nearly 50%? Selling at the top and buying at the bottom would have been ideal, but unfortunately that kind of market timing is nearly impossible. In fact, a Fidelity study of 3.9 million workplace savers found that those who stayed invested in the stock market during the downturn far outpaced those who went to the sidelines.

From the fourth quarter of 2008 through the end of 2015, investors who stayed in the markets saw their account balances—which reflected the impact of their investment choices and contributions—grow 147%. That’s twice the average 74% return for those who moved out of stocks and into cash during the fourth quarter of 2008 or first quarter of 2009.3 More than 25% of the investors who sold out of stocks during that downturn never got back into the market—missing out on all of the recovery and gains of the following years. The vast majority of 401(k) participants did not make any asset allocation changes during the market downturn, but for those who did it was a fateful decision that had a lasting impact.

If you are tempted to move to cash when the stock market plunges, consider a more balanced, less volatile asset mix that you can stick with. Imagine 2 hypothetical investors—an investor who panicked, slashed his equity allocation from 90% to 20% during the bear markets in 2002 and 2008, and subsequently waited until the market recovered before moving his stock allocation back to a target level of 90%; and an investor who stayed the course during the bear markets with a 60/40 allocation of stocks and bonds.4

As you can see below, the disciplined investor significantly outperformed the more aggressive investor who pulled back his equity exposure radically as the market fell. Assuming a $100,000 starting portfolio 20 years ago, the patient investor with the 60% stock allocation would have averaged a 7.5% return though March of 2016, versus 5.5% for the impatient investor. In dollar terms, the difference after 20 years: $135,000.

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Bottom line, develop a strategy and stick with it despite volatility.  It will return, volatility that is. 

Hat tip Fidelity Investments.

Tax The Rich, To Death

Great article this week from The Washington Examiner on taxation and the Trump tax plan. 

The lede:  Any tax cut for middle income earners will also provide a benefit for those further up the income scale, including the top 20 percent who pay 95 percent of all income taxes, according to the director of the Office of Management and Budget.

More from Mike Mulvaney:  If you break the income tax universe into what we call quintiles, so equal sized 20 percent columns, the first two columns, the first quintile and the lower quintile, don’t pay any taxes at all. In fact they net positive. We pay them when they file a tax return.

That middle quintile, which you might describe, some people do, as middle class, pays an effective rate in the low single digits. And all of the taxes are paid by folks in the top two quintiles, and that last quintile pays almost fully, 95 percent I think, of the taxes.

Read the whole thing:  www.washingtonexaminer.com

The Warthog

A-10-10-2017

From strategypage.com:  An A-10 Thunderbolt II shoots a flare off after receiving fuel from a 340th Expeditionary Air Refueling Squadron KC-135 Stratotanker in support of Operation Inherent Resolve Oct. 6, 2017. The aircraft can loiter near battle areas for extended periods of time and operate in low ceiling and visibility conditions. The wide combat radius, and short takeoff and landing capabilities, permit operations in and out of locations near front lines. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Michael Battles)

One Year Ago Today

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Oops!

B-1B Lancer

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From strategypage.com:  A U.S. Air Force B-1B Lancer bombers assigned to the 37th Expeditionary Bomb Squadron, deployed from Ellsworth AFB, South Dakota, and two Republic of Korea Air Force F-15K fighters fly over a crowd during the 2017 Seoul Aerospace & Defense Exhibition (Seoul ADEX 17) at Seoul Airport, Republic of Korea (ROK) Oct. 21, 2017.The two B-1B bombers departed Andersen Air Force Base, Guam, and conducted an 11-hour mission in the vicinity of the Korean Peninsula and Japan. The mission included sequential bilateral integration with Koku Jieitai (Japan Air Self-Defense Force) and ROK air forces before continuing over land to support a flyover for the 2017 Seoul International Aerospace & Defense Exhibition (Seoul ADEX 17). (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Alex Echols)

Economic Growth Is Not A Mystery

Yet, Democrats just don’t get it.  Great weekend read here from Peter Ferrara www.observer.com

Trump’s Tax Plan Gets High Marks, From Liberal College Students

This is just great stuff.  From campusreform.org.  The lede:

President Donald Trump’s proposal for comprehensive tax reform was almost immediately dismissed as heartless and impractical by his political opponents.

But what would some of those opponents think if they were told the same plan was being proposed by someone they adore—Senator Bernie Sanders?

Cost of attending George Washington University:  $68,275.00

Read the whole thing www.campusreform,org

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