Archive for the ‘Market Update’ Category

Clean Sweep

From Charlie BilelloEvery major country ETF in the world was positive in 2017 with an average return of 28%:


Steady.  Higher.  Relentless. 


Santa Is Exiting The Building

The seven day ‘Santa Claus Rally’ period ends today.  Once again the S&P 500 Index has posted a nice gain(+0.8%), which bodes well for the rest of the year.  When Santa fails to deliver, it’s usually a warning sign:


Hat tip Ryan Detrick

Looking Ahead

Like tomorrow…

Does the 1st trading day of the year matter? Sounds random, but …

Past 20 years, on the 1st day of a new year the S&P 500 has been higher 10 times and lower 10 times. 

Full year return if up the first day? +14.2%.

Full year return if down the first day? -0.6%

As always, great stuff from Ryan Detrick of LPL Research

Here’s more:

Dow up +25% in ’17 … time to look for a pullback?

Since ’50, up >25% YTD 10 times.

Higher next year 8 times with 6 of those times up double digits.

Avg +12.6% vs avg yearly return of +8.5%.

In other words, don’t turn bearish simply because ’17 was up a lot.

Hat tip Ryan Detrick

Einhorn: “None Of The Problems From The Crisis Have Been Solved” – Full Q&A (ZH)


Quite A Year

Here’s a look at a handful of charts that sum up the post election rally quite well.   Courtesy of Charlie Bilello.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at an all-time high 71 times in 2017, more than any other year in history:


The S&P 500 Index(total return) has been positive in 14 out of the last 15 years. That would probably surprise a few people:


The S&P 500 Index finished higher for the 9th consecutive year, tying the record run from 1991-1999:


The S&P 500 Index was positive every month in 2017, the first perfect 12-0 year in history (note: total return):


S&P 500 Index ends 2017 up 14 months in a row, the longest streak in history (note: total return):


At 2.8%, the largest drawdown in the S&P 500 during 2017 was the 2nd lowest in history, trailing only 1995:


Don’t tell Krugman…


British Economy is Set to Power Past France by 2020


Remember all the gloom and doom over Brexit?  Here’s a taste, from CNBC(June 2016): 

Should U.K. voters choose to leave the European Union (EU) in a referendum next week, the net economic effects “would likely be negative and substantial,” the International Monetary fund (IMF) warned on Friday.

While recognizing that the vote on June 23 was “a choice for U.K voters to make and that their decisions will reflect both economic and noneconomic factors,” the IMF issued a stark warning to the country at a time when polls show a very tight race between the “Leave” and “Remain” camps.

“(IMF Executive) Directors agreed that the net economic effects of leaving the EU would likely be negative and substantial. In the event of a vote to leave, Directors recommended that policies be geared toward supporting stability and reducing uncertainty,” the IMF said in its latest report on the U.K. economy.

Well, they were dead wrong, again.  In today’s DailyMail:

Britain’s economy is now predicted to overtake France‘s in 2020 as experts admitted they had been too gloomy over Brexit.

The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) had claimed the economy would slow down because of a drop in consumer spending and investment.

But last night the think-tank admitted it had got this wrong, saying: ‘In practice this has not happened.’

Its economists accepted the fears they expressed last year that Brexit would leave the UK behind the French economy for five years were exaggerated.

Read the whole thing:

The War on Hidden Taxes


The lede, from the Washington Post no less:  Trump inherited a regulatory state that had grown to unprecedented levels under President Barack Obama. One way to measure the growth in regulations is by counting the number of pages in the Federal Register, the book the government publishes containing all new regulations. Seven of the eight largest annual page totals in American history occurred under Obama. Before Obama, no president had ever exceeded 80,000 pages in the Federal Register. In 2016, Obama became the first president to break the 90,000-page mark — 96,702, to be exact — and if you add his last 20 days in office, the total reaches 103,432.

More:  Obama also set a land speed record for “economically significant” regulations — regulations costing the economy $100 million or more. According to the White House Council of Economic Advisers, Obama imposed 494 major regulations during his time in office — a 38 percent increase over his predecessor. And in his final eight months in office alone, according to Neomi Rao, administrator of the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs, Obamasaddled the economy with as much as $15.2 billion in regulatory costs.”

When Trump came into office, he immediately began reversing this trend. He worked with Congress to repeal 14 major regulations implemented under Obama, and withdrew or delayed more than 1,500 others by executive action. Most importantly, he issued Executive Order 13771, which directed government agencies to eliminate two existing regulations for each new one issued, and to ensure that the net costs of any new regulations are zero.

Last Thursday, Trump announced the first results of this effort: His administration achieved $8.1 billion in lifetime regulatory savings — and is on track to achieve an additional $9.8 billion in savings in fiscal 2018. Since excessive regulations are a hidden tax on American workers and businesses, that amounts to an $18 billion tax cut.

Of course, this has been completely ignored by the main stream media.  They’re focused on more important things like tree removal and Coke consumption. 

Read the whole thing:

First Time, Ever

From the desk of Ryan Detrick:  How do you sum up 2017? The S&P 500 Index will be up all 12 months (total return basis) this year for the first time in history:


Steady.  Higher.  Relentless.

The Final Week

Since the 2009 lows the final week of the year for the S&P 500 Index has been fairly soft.  Over the longer term, quite the opposite:


Hat tip Bespoke Research

Merry Christmas

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