Archive for the ‘Market Update’ Category

Higher Volume Confirmed

Sorry guys – it’s been awhile.  All positions are working  so far including the shaky GLD play.  We’ve added  silver and some bank ETF’s.    Our oil position is up nicely.  We received our increased volume a day after the last post so we are 65% long in our S&P positions based on a close above the 875.   The initial entry was the second week of March.  Our stop on half of our SPY and SSO position has been moved up.  Short bonds (TBT) is up.  Looking at DBA (ETF for commodity aggs.).  I like the chart on GDX (miners) better than GLD.  Let’s see how the charts react to the refiners tomorrow.  Watching VLO and TSO. 

This is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as trading advice.

875 With Light Volume

With two minutes ’til the close today the S&P jumped up and closed above 875.  Volume was light with increased price.  This can often signal a potential short term top.  Next week we will closely watch volume.   We have moved stops on SPY,  SSO,  and AAPL.  Newer positions like TBT (short bonds) and USO (oil) are working well so far.  GLD (gold) looks like it wants to test and or break 85.  The commodity ETF – DBA (agriculture) looks good but may be a little extended today.

Have a great weekend!

875

875 is the number we need to close above on the S&P in order to increase our position long.  It’s an obvious statement but the market could go either way very soon with the stress test and the Fed meeting tomorrow.  On a daily chart the range continues to get tighter (triangle) each day.   On the technical bear side I see repeated failures to close above 865.   We have a re-test failure of a double top to boot.  We need to hold 840 on a close.  If not, I suspect the next stop is 820.  To tough to call.  Continue to sit on your hands until the close.

Sitting Back

The M48  has small positions in AAPL, MDAS, MSFT and DLTR.   The models largest position remains the SPY and SSO.  Our S&P long exposure remains at 55%.   I would like to see the S&P test 800 or even 770 and hold before it makes a run at breaking through 900.  This is assuming we hold the March lows.

As of today we are just sitting back and observing how the market reacts to the plethora of earnings.  Speaking of earnings – the M48 will move up hard stops on AAPL after the close.  Some of our more aggressive subscribers/clients have a small trade on in the SDS (ultra short S&P) based on a bounce off a double bottom at roughly 65.  The stop is tight at just under 64.

Enjoy your weekend.

This post is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice.

Six Weeks In A Row

It’s all over the news that the market is on a roll.  I agree.  I also know that when I see major headlines I often see the market go in the opposite direction.  This is just one more reason that I see profit taking ahead.  We remain 55% long the market.  Once the selling appears (technically) to have dried up – we will add.  No exposure to energy or the metals at this time.  AAPL ( Apple) out next week.  We will change our stop from a hard stop to a mental stop due to the potential volatility upon the release.  The market looks good for now but I’m confident you will get at shot at lower levels than Friday’s close.

Trendline Holds

The market continues to roll with one of the most impressive moves since the depression.  If you are a M48 subscriber or existing client in our  managed accounts you have seen the market continue to bounce off a trendline that we sent out in our screen captured video charts three weeks ago.   Based on probabilities the March 6th lows may be the final low for quite some time based on what I see technically.  I’m also confident that we will have a shot at buying at a lower price on the S&P than today’s close.   Currently we remain at 55% long the S&P using the ETF’s SPY and SSO.  We have hard stops on half of our position and mental stops on the balance.  We will add when the market pulls in and holds.  We will begin to take profit as we approach resistance.

More Banks Next Week

 

Another solid week led by a surprise preannouncement from Wells Fargo Bank (WFC). Keep your cool though because next week three major banks earnings are out which will determine further strength in the sector and the broad market.

The ETF basket of banks XLF broke out above resistance and closed at 10.63. The 52 week high is 28.17. The 52 week high on Wells Fargo is 44.49. WFC closed Thursday at 19.30 which was below its opening price.

These stocks and ETF’s are examples of why it’s paramount to cut your losses short so you have the capital to take a shot at the market at lower levels.

For the overall market this was the fifth straight week of gains for the major indexes. The NASDAQ rose 1.9%, S&P 500 was up 1.7% and the Dow edged up 0.8%.

The market continues to be overbought but as trend followers we will continue to ride the wave.
The Dow and the S&P are still under water for 2009.  Our managed accounts and M48 subscribers are above the line with only 45% to 55% invested.

Wait and See

The market is still behaving well as of today’s close.  I see a gap that may get filled to the downside this week.  More importantly we need to hold the 50 day moving average or recent support which is just below the 50 day.   As always we are dealing in probabilities using pattern recognition based on price and volume.   So far we are profitable on AAPL and WMT.  The stop has been moved up closer on DLTR to limit a potential loss.  The majority of our current exposure is in the SPY and SSO.  Our stops have been moved up to protect profit on the large percentage of the S&P exposure.  Let’s see how the market handles Alcoa (AA) earnings tomorrow.

SPY & Commodities

With about 90 minutes to the close the S&P is testing yesterday’s highs.  Will the market sell off in the last 30 minutes?  Who knows.  The testing of the highs is a shadow on a candlestick chart that we referred to yesterday in our Tuesday  M48 video newsletter.  We added a little SPY and SSO in the managed accounts yesterday.  Friday should be an important day due to unemployment numbers being released.  The metals, GLD (gold) and SLV (silver) ETF’s are off our radar screen for now.   Crude is stuck in a range so we are sitting on the sidelines until we see a better pattern form for either the short (DUG) or the long (DIG).  We are watching WMT (Walmart) and currently have a small position in DLTR.  BIIB and AAPL may be added soon.

Profit Taking

Friday 7:15 am

We did a little  selling in the managed accounts yesterday just before the close to lock in profit prior to the weekend.  So far this morning the market seems to be taking its needed rest. The trendline still holds as does the 50 day moving on the major indexes.  No entry on the metals yet.  If GLD breaks below 88.75 – there will be no entry, period.  We have initiated a small position in the stock DLTR.  Check out a chart on www.BigCharts.com.  Never chase a stock or ETF if it is to far extended from its pivot (buy) point.

Join us for a FREE workshop to see exactly how we manage client accounts and our popular M48 Market Timing Service.  Sign up for a week of FREE,  M48 screen captured trade videos.  Good stuff….

Have a great weekend!

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