Archive for the ‘Market Update’ Category

Six For Six

From Ryan Detrick:   It is official.

The S&P 500 Index has hit new highs the first six days of 2018, tying the record from 1964.

The Nasdaq Composite has also reached new highs the first six days of this year, ties the record from 1999.

High Five

After five days of trading the S&P 500 Index is up 2.8% for the year.

It has started a year with a 2% or better gain fifteen times.

Every year this has happened(15 for 15)the Index has gone on to gain just over 18.5% on average for the year.  


Impressive.  The interesting data point in the above table is the depth of the deepest pullback during each year.  The smallest being 5.8% in 2013, the largest being 33.5% in 1987.  The average intra-year decline is just under 20%.  As mentioned earlier, the S&P 500 Index hasn’t suffered as much as a 5% pullback in over 350 trading days, that’s the 3rd longest such streak in history.  With a little patience we expect to see many entry opportunities during the year.  Volatility will make a welcome return.

Hat tip Ryan Detrick of LPL Research

Volatility Will Return

And that’s not necessarily a bad thing.  From the Desk of Ryan Detrick:  The S&P 500 Index gained 2.6% last week, that would have been the largest weekly gain all of 2017.  It also ended a streak of 55 consecutive weeks without a 2% change(higher or lower), which was the third longest streak ever(mid-’60s and mid-’90s).

Which brings to mind the below chart.  They love ’em higher.  The Rydex Bull/Bear ratio is at record highs:


The expectation is for further gains this year but it will be it should be a wild ride.

Hat tip Ryan Detrick/Lance Roberts

Riding High in 2018

The S&P 500 Index gained 2.6% after the first four days in 2018, that’s the best start since 2006.  Since 1950, 12 other times a year started with a greater than 2.5% after four days. How did those years finish?  Full year gain(12 out of 12)closed with an average return of 18.6% and median return of 18.2%.

Data courtesy of Ryan Detrick of LPLResearch

The Sledding Pooch

Smart, very smart…

New Years Eve

On the USS Ronald Reagan:


From   YOKOSUKA, Japan (Jan. 01, 2017) Fireworks explode over the skyline behind the Navy’s forward-deployed aircraft carrier, USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76), for New Year’s Day. Ronald Reagan, the flagship of Carrier Strike Group 5, provides a combat-ready force that protects and defends the collective maritime interests of its allies and partners in the Indo-Asia-Pacific region. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Kenneth Abbate)

Cargo Ship Time Lapse Photos

Stunning.  Here’s the link:

A Smashing Good Start

Ryan Detrick of LPL Research sums it up: 

New all-time highs the first 4 days of year for the S&P 500 Index.

2 more up days and ties 1964 for longest streak of new highs to start a year.

3 more up days to tie 1987 for longest win streak to start a year.

1964 saw solid low double digit gains and 1987 saw fantastic gains first 8 months.

Tracking The Bull

Here’s a look ahead from our friend Marty Block.  As always, an excellent read.  Enjoy.

2018 Forecast/8th Annual Letter:   Tracking the Bull 2018



Historic, Already

2018 is just getting started and it’s already making history.

For the first time since 1964 the S&P 500 Index has started a year with three straight new all time highs.  The all time record was set in ’64 with six straight new highs in a row. 

Yesterday the Dow Jones Industrials pierced the 25,000 level.  It took only 23 trading days for the Dow to go from 24,000 to 25,000, the fastest 1000 point move in history. 


Hat tip Ryan Detrick

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