Archive for the ‘Market Update’ Category

We Nailed These Energy Stocks

Back in early September we featured Occidental, plus a few other energy names(XOM,HAL,SLB), as bullish set ups.  Today OXY is up over 2.5% and is headed for its first close above the 200 day moving average since December of last year.  The stock is now 9% above the September low.  Here’s our post:
Occidental Looking Good
By  Gary MorrowSep 6, 2017 | 11:15 AM EDT
Actually, looking better than good.  Energy perked up nicely yesterday and the sector continues to move well today. OXY(+1.5%)is leaving behind one of the more solid bottoms in the group and is set up well for a big run. September is shaping up as a second straight higher monthly low for the stock as the basing pattern in place since early March strengthens. I expect more upside, initial target is the declining 200D MAV($64). OXY has touched its 200 day since last December. I’m long a small amount of OXY, purchased this morning. Bought some XOM, HAL and SLB yesterday. A drop back below this week’s lows, in any of these names, would be a big disappointment.
We are long OXY, XOM, HAL, SLB in most managed accounts.


The Weakest Time of The Year

Certainly not the case so far…Here’s a view of each day of the year’s performance, current September time frame is highlighted.  Very interesting:


Hat tip Ryan Detrick

Aging Well

Only the October 1990 – March 2000 bull market, which produced a gain of 417%, surpasses the current bull market run:


Hat tip Ryan Detrick

Oracle Remains Under Heavy Pressure

Further downside will provide a very low risk entry opportunity. 


Shares of software giant Oracle suffered a major breakdown last Friday.  Following the stock’s first quarter earnings release Thursday afternoon ORCL opened the next session with a huge breakdown gap.  By the close the stock was off over 7% as selling pressure surged to its heaviest level in years.  This was as sharp reversal from the very bullish action earlier in the week.  Just last Wednesday ORCL closed at new all time highs. 

Oracle has continued to fade this week although downside momentum has begun to ease.  Despite this we expect shares to drift lower in the near term after leaving behind an ominous key downside reversal in the weekly chart.  For patient bulls a further decline will produce a very low risk entry opportunity.  As shares near $47.00 investors should be prepared to take action. 

Major support near the $47.00 to $46.00 area should be viewed as a low risk buy zone.  This key zone includes the Oracle’s initial post election peak near $47.00 as well as the powerful post earnings breakout gap left behind back in late June.  As ORCL reaches this area it will stretch the sell off from the 2017 highs to 12% and will likely enter oversold territory.  This is the formula for a bottom, at least a temporary version. 

At time of publication we are long ORCL in some managed accounts. 

Peace in Our Time

The last four trading sessions were the most peaceful in history:


Of note, twelve of the top 20 low volatility streaks have occurred in 2017, and there’s over three months left in the year.  Something’s gotta give.

Like maybe a 3% correction?  Well, maybe not, the streak continues: 


We live in interesting times.

Hat tip Charlie Bilello


The Verge of History

The lede, from  U.S. stocks have risen more in the past eight years than in almost any other post-World War II time of economic growth, as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research.


More:   The logic here is that economic expansions fuel bull markets and so it’s reasonable to measure market recoveries after a period of macro contraction ends.

Using that definition, let’s review how the S&P 500 has performed during the last ten economic recoveries. To be precise, the birth of the stock market’s bull market is dated as the first day after an NBER-defined recession has ended. The market run continues through the peak.

The S&P 500 Index jumped 172 percent from July 2009, when the current expansion started, through Wednesday. The biggest advance was about 300 percent and occurred from April 1991 to March 2001, when Internet-related stocks soared.
Read the whole thing:


The S&P 500 has never traded in a range of less than 0.3% over four consecutive days.  It’s heading that way today.  The least volatile market in history continues. 


For comparisons sake, the largest three day range was back in October of 2008 at 10.8%.

The least volatile market in history continues.  If the month ended today it would be the quietest September in history, as measured by the VIX:


Something’s gotta give…

Hat tip Charlie Bilello



Timing a Sell Off is Tough

Actually, near impossible.  Check this stat: Since the end of the 1987 bear market(12/3/87), which was just about 30 years ago, the S&P 500 has been in a bull market 89% of the trading days.  It would have been extremely tough to avoid(time)the 11% down days, over 30 years that’s only 858 out of 7,800 trading sessions. 

Hat tip Bespoke Research 


Limiting Loses

The Key too Long-Term Investing Success

Great stuff here from Michael Lebowitz.  The lede:  Growing wealth through investing typically occurs over a long time horizon that includes many bullish and bearish market cycles. While making the most out of bull markets is important, it is equally important to avoid letting the inevitable bear markets reverse your progress. This article walks investment professionals through the under-appreciated benefits of limiting portfolio drawdowns and provides examples to help persuade clients to take a long term perspective on their wealth.

Read the whole thing:

New Highs

Not only in the S&P 500 Index: 


Don’t tell Krugman!

Hat tip Charlie Bilello

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