Archive for the ‘Chart of the Day’ Category

SPX

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Stock Market History From JPMorgan

The LONG term view of the ups and downs(mostly ups)of the S&P Composite Index since 1900:

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Hat tip StockTwits

KO

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Checking Investor Sentiment

Investor expectations have risen to extreme levels.  Here’s a short take from AAII:   The percentage of individual investors expecting stocks to rise over the next six months is at a level not seen in more than three years. At the same time, the latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows pessimism at its lowest level in more than two years.

Bullish sentiment stands at 59.8% while bearish sentiment has fallen to 15.6%. 

The last time bearish sentiment was this low was back in November of 2015.  The first six weeks of 2016 where very weak.  After bottoming mid February, after a 14% pullback from the December 2015 highs, the S&P 500 Index moved steadily higher through year end.

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We may experience some bumps ahead, possibly a significant pullback developing later this month.  As in early 2016, we believe it would provide a buying opportunity. 

Here’s more from AAII.com:   http://www.aaii.com/o/sentimentsurvey

Chart courtesy of Helene Meisler

DIS (Weekly)

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XOM

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Heavy Into Equities

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Last month Individual investors’ equity allocations surpassed 70%. That’s the highest allocation to stocks since July 2000.

Contrarian in me says…

Hat tip AAII

GE Lifting

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Shares of GE are showing signs of life as the new year begins.  The stock is up over 2.5% this morning and is trading well above last week’s high.  The ‘quiet’ bottom that’s been forming since the mid November selling climax appears to be solid enough to support a significant rebound.  At last week’s low GE was down over 45% from its 2017 peak and was at its deepest oversold reading(weekly MACD)since the 2009 lows.  Also working in GE’s favor of late is a rather robust wave of call buying.  Here’s Bob’s take on the action:   Solid activity in the weekly (Jan 5th) 18 calls around $.12-.13 and also in the regular Jan 18 calls around $.25-30, both dates seeing over 18,000 contracts each. To a lesser degree, some interest in the Jan 12th expiration 18 calls between $.20-25 to the tune of approx. 5,000 contracts. Bulk of trading activity across the GE Spectrum has been in call buying.

We are long GE in most managed accounts. 

 

TNX (Weekly)

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Growth vs. Value

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Growth outperformed value dramatically in 2017.  It’s unlikely this will continue in the new year. 

Great chart from @Bamabroker

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