Author Archive

Just How Wild Was Last Week?

Last week was extremely volatile.  Ryan Detrick puts the wild action in perspective:

The S&P 500 dropped 2% on both Monday and Friday, but was up the other three days of the week.

Last time that happened was October 1937.

Hat tip LPL Research

An Ominous Sign?


The grey areas above mark recessions.  Interesting…

Quote of the Day

“Everyone understands the things that happen within two standard deviations, but everything important in financial history takes place outside of two standard devisations.” – R. Kayne

Hat tip Jim O’Shaughnessy

Tim Tebow Talks Life

Extremely special stuff.  We could use a few more Tim Tebow type role models.


A Wild Week Comes To An End

This year has been a volatile one for stocks.  This comes as no surprise.  Last week was particularly wild.  The SMH(Semiconducter Index)reached new April lows.  Without a late bounce Friday the S&P 500 Index would have closed below its 200 day moving average for the second time this week.  The Dow 30 Industrials swung nearly 1,300 points between Monday’s low to Thursday’s high.  Underneath this nervous action is a very solid earnings backdrop.  

From LPL Rersearch:   The trampoline finally broke on the S&P 500 Index’s 200-day moving average, which had held firm since the Brexit vote in June 2016. Technology and trade were again the culprits, as they have been through this latest bout of volatility over the past couple of weeks. In response to Monday’s market decline, John Lynch noted, “Amid the recent weakness in stocks, manufacturing sector data showed activity levels near decade highs, while expectations for first quarter S&P 500 earnings growth are for an increase of over 17.0%.” Market fundamentals still look pretty good.

More:  As the stock market bottoming process continues, here is what we think investors should focus on:

As always, great stuff from LPL.  Hat tip Ryan Detrick

Snowy Chinook


From  A CH-47 Chinook helicopter prepares to land and insert New York Army National Guard Soldiers, into their landing zone, Java Center, N.Y., March 10, 2018. Soldiers will spend two days training in harsh conditions on reconnaissance tactics, utilizing infiltration and exfiltration techniques by helicopter. (U.S. Air National Guard photo by Staff Sgt. Ryan Campbell)

March Jobs Disappoint

The lede:  This morning’s employment report for March showed a 103K increase in total nonfarm payrolls, which was worse than forecasts. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. The consensus was for 193K new jobs and the unemployment rate to drop to 4.0%.


More detail here from Jill Mislinski:

Unemployment Benefits Continue To Fall


Key bit:   The total number of people receiving unemployment benefits fell to the lowest level in 44 years in March, the Department of Labor reported Thursday in more good news about the economy.

Altogether, 1.8 million people got unemployment insurance benefits toward the end of March, the smallest such seasonally-adjusted number since the end of December 1973, when the workforce was much smaller and there were fewer people to be laid off. Benefits are available for up to 26 weeks in most states.

As for new weekly jobless claims, Thursday’s report showed first-time applications rising 24,000 to 242,000. That was a bit of a miss: Forecasters had expected new jobless claims to rebound to 230,000 after falling to the lowest level in 45 years the week before.

Rollbacks matter…

Read the whole thing:

Looking Ahead To Tomorrow’s Jobs Report

From the desk of Brian Gilmartin:   The March ’18 jobs number is reported Friday morning before the bell and expectations of 170,000 to 180,000 of “net new jobs” created by the US economy is subdued since March job creation has historically been below-average.

February ‘18’s job creation was 313,000 which was quite sizable, relative to the 200,000 expected.

The key metrics to the jobs report are “net new jobs created” and “average hourly earnings”.

The ADP report yesterday showed stronger-than-expected job growth, this morning’s jobless claims showed weaker-than-expected claims data (more people filing for unemployment).

Let’s see what tomorrow holds. Watch the 10-year Treasury yield.

Hat tip

Eyeing A Bottom In Exxon Mobil


Following a disappointing fourth quarter earnings report shares of Exxon Mobil went into the tank.  Six straight loses later the stock was off 17% from the February 1st peak leaving an ominous spike high behind in the process.  XOM has drifted lower since the initial post earnings flush but further downside has been limited.  Despite the easing downside momentum the stock did put lower monthly lows in March and April.  But as this week progresses some positive signs are developing. 

Trading Notes:

XOM made a new 2018 low on Monday.  At mid day(+1.2%)the stock is trading above last week’s high, a close tomorrow above $75.00 would complete a key upside reversal in the weekly charts.

A divergent low has been building in the daily MACD indicator for the last six weeks.

Selling pressure has been easing since Feb. 23(Friday).

XOM is bumping up against a very solid supply area(2017 lows-3/7 breakdown gap).  This is the first real overhead challenge for the stock since the beginning of March. 

A clear take out of the $76.00 area would be very encouraging.

On the downside, a close back below $74.00 would indicate more basing is ahead.

We are long XOM in most managed accounts.


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