Author Archive

Strong Start For The Dollar

uup

The US Dollar is off to a solid start in the new year.  The UUP(PowerShares US Dollar Index Fund)has not gained much in percentage terms from Tuesday’s close but it has moved past a key overhead trendline.   Yesterday the UUP closed above its 50 day moving average and today it managed to put some distance on a long term trendline that had linked the May, September and November highs.   The next challenge for this index will be the December peak just below $21.80.  Just above is a heavy layer of supply that includes both the June and August lows.  It is still too early to tell if the UUP is heading for a significant rally but the bottoming action over the last three months is beginning to look constructive.   We believe the dollar will be set up well for a rally if it can build on this week’s strength in the near term.  A close above the $21.85 area would be a very bullish signal.  We are leaning toward a more positive stance on the dollar as 2014 begins.

A Weak Beginning

indu tc

The powerful year end rally may be giving way to a healthy pullback.  The Dow Jones Industrials zoomed just shy of 4%(+700 pts.)following the Fed’s comments back on December 18th.   This run included eight gains over the last nine sessions.  As mentioned last week(Dec. 27th post), we expect the market to undergo a healthy pullback soon.  The first session of 2014 may begin the process.   We remain bullish on the overall market and expect minimal weakness at this point.  A re test of the November peak near 16,175 may be too much to ask from this incredibly strong market but we would view this as a very healthy pullback.  A short term base in this area would allow the market a much needed rest while working off much of its overbought condition.

An Interesting List From The Attkisson Blog

Ten 2013 stories that should make news in 2014.  From Sharyl Attkisson:

http://sharylattkisson.com/Attkisson_Blog.html

A Powerful Finish

current-market-snapshot

            The S&P 500 finished 2013 with a 29% gain and is up an incredible 173% from its 2009 lows.    Only four times since the inception of this index in 1957 has it had a higher annual gain.  For bonds, a 13 year winning streak has ended with its worst performance since 1994.   Above chart provided by dshort.com.

Predictions For 2014?

As far as predictions for next year are concerned, I find Brian Gilmartin’s quote on the subject to be spot on.

“Forget the 2014 predictions, which we are flooded with around this time of year.  Play “probabilities”,  which is the safest way to protect capital.”

 

How Money Walks

Very interesting report from the IRS  on the migration of Americans and their income.   The interactive map is amazing.  More from Travis H. Brown:

http://www.howmoneywalks.com/irs-tax-migration/

Bonds Limp Into the Close

tlt

The TLT will finish 2013 at its lows for the year.  The bond index is off just shy of 1.25% on the day as it extends last week’s breakdown move.  This is a very ugly way to close out the year to say the least.    As the TLT drops further below the $102.20 area, which had marked the August, September and November lows, it will become a much heavier layer of resistance should a rebound develop.  One event we believe that could quickly reverse this bearish action would be a surprisingly weak employment number.   This major economic news item is not due until January 10th.  Fixed income could remain out of favor until then.

Bob Farrell’s 10 Investing Rules

50 year Wall Street verteran Bob Farrell has compiled a list of rules every investor should follow.  From the STA Wealth Managment web site:

http://stawealth.com/daily-x-change/1532-visualizing-bob-farrell-s-10-investing-rules.html

Obama’s Top 10 Constitutional Violations of 2013

It’s end of year list time.  Here’s one from Ilya Shapiro:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2013/12/23/president-obamas-top-10-constitutional-violations-of-2013/

Avoid These Habits!

The Fourteen Habits of Highly Miserable People:

http://www.alternet.org/personal-health/14-habits-highly-miserable-people?fb_action_ids=10202536289115743&fb_action_types=og.likes

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