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Quite A Streak

On Friday the Nasdaq Composite closed with a slight loss ending an impressive winning streak at 10 straight gains.

comp2

What happens next?  Well, usually the tech heavy index continues higher.  Key bit:

On Thursday (July 20) the Nasdaq closed in the green for the tenth day in a row. This is significant, as history would suggest near-term strength could continue. In fact, since 1980, the Nasdaq has gained 2.6% on average during the month following a 10-day win streak versus an average monthly return of 1.0%. Looking at this same period, three months later things became more normal. Over the next several weeks though, the bulls could still be in charge.

chart-3

And, if you think the technology sector has become extremely overextended during the current nine year bull cycle, no need to worry based on inflation adjusted data:

chart-11

Hat tip LPL Research/Ryan Detrick

 

 

They Love Obamacare

It should be no surprise that the major health insurance providers were big time proponents of Obamacare right from the get go. How could they not?  The government enacts a low that forces people to buy your product.  Makes sense your company would do well, right?  Very well actually:

ACA health care stocks

The big losers, the folks that footed the bill, the middle class.

Hat tip Charlie Bilello

The Best Performing Sectors in 2017

sector perfomance 2017

Energy and Telecom have been lagging badly.  A good place to look for deeply oversold stocks with healthy rebound potential in the second half of the year.

Voting With Their Feet

And its good news for moving companies.  Key bit:   Illinois’ surging debts, rising property taxes, weak job creation and political dysfunction continue to be a boon to large moving companies United Van Lines and Atlas Van Lines. United and Atlas offer large shipment moves across the country for households and businesses. According to 2016 shipment data released by the two moving companies, Illinois has the worst “outbound” rate for total shipments in the entire country.

The democrats in Chicago run this financial hell hole of a state. 

United-Atlas-moving_Graphic-1-1024x472

And the financials for the state will certainly get much worse before they get better.  The geese that lay the golden eggs(taxes)are fleeing, en masse:

United-Atlas-moving_Graphic-4-1024x933

While this is transpiring, Illinois has the highest paid state workers in the nation.  As a wise man once said “Math is hard”:

cost of living gov workers

More:  According to Census migration data, from July 2015 – July 2016 Illinois lost a record 114,000 people in net migration to other states, causing the total state population to contract by 37,500 people. The rate of people fleeing Illinois has been at all-time highs for the past three years of data, resulting in a total state population contracting for three consecutive years. The sheer magnitude of outflow should trouble policymakers in Illinois, as Illinois’ loss rate is multiples of surrounding states even after adjusting for population size, and Illinois is the only shrinking state in the Midwest.

What a total disaster…

Read the whole thing:  www.illinoispolicy.org

 

You Are Here

 

 

you are here

Great chart from Ryan Detrick

All Good

Just about everything, U.S. stock wise, hit new all time highs today:

new highs

Hat tip Charlie Bilello

Two Years in the Making

Amazon’s destruction of the entire retail sector has intensified over the last two years:

DFELp5RXoAE4YqU

Since July 2015:

AMZN  +116%

Retail ETF(XRT)  -19%

Simply stunning.  Hat tip Charlie Bilello

 

30 Years is a Long Time

All smiles…

BN-UI603_2ZGIZ_OR_20170719041056

The lede:   Stock markets go up and down: It is a fact of life. Except in 2017.

Three major stock-market benchmarks in the U.S., Europe and Asia have avoided pullbacks this year, commonly defined as 5% declines from recent highs. Never in at least the past 30 years have all three indexes—the S&P 500, MSCI Europe and MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan—gone a calendar year without falling at some point by at least 5%.

Read the whole thing:   https://www.wsj.com

Hat tip LPL Research

 

The Bezos Recession?

The extremely broad weakness in the retail sector, thanks largely to Amazon, could spark an economic downturn, the lede:   “There is a possibility that a retail collapse could spill over into the commercial real estate market—a somber second-act to the residential housing crisis that is now almost a decade in the rear-view mirror.”

More here from The American Interest:  https://www.the-american-interest.com/2017/07/17/the-bezos-recession/

Confusion Reigns

With both AAII(American Association of Individual Investors)bullish and bearish sentiment below 30 its quite clear why we are experiencing the quietest market(lack of volatility)ever.   Bull and bear sentiment below 30, which has been the case for the last three weeks, has only been this low two other times in the last 30 years.  Yes, there is a ton of investor confusion out there. 

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.3%
BULLISH
28.2%
-1.3
Percentage point
change from
last week
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.4%
NEUTRAL
42.1%
+1.6
Percentage point
change from
last week
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.3%
BEARISH
29.6%
-0.2
Percentage point
change from
last week

 

Note: Numbers may not add up to 100% because of rounding.Hat tip Ryan Detrick, AAII.com

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