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Is A Big Rotation Coming?


From Investopedia:   The S&P GSCI is a composite index of commodity sector returns which represents a broadly diversified, unleveraged, long-only position in commodity futures. The S&P GSCI is intended to provide exposure to broad-based commodities. The S&P GSCI was previously known as the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) but was purchased by Standard & Poor’s from Goldman Sachs in 2007.

Sir Winston


Toll Brothers Builds a Foundation


Toll Brothers has had a very rough go this year.  At last month’s low the stock had fallen nearly 35% from the January highs.  In late June TOL appeared to have reached a significant low as the 40 week moving average came into play.  As the month dragged on shares fell to new 2018 lows while putting in a sixth straight lower monthly low.  So far this month the stock is showing signs of stabilization.  TOL is working on a higher monthly low while tracing out a divergent MACD pattern.  In the near term we consider the stock a low risk buy near current levels. 

Trading notes:

TOL put in a major low in August of last year.  From the Aug. 22, 2017 lows the stock surged nearly 40% by the start of December.

The stock’s 40 week moving average($36.00)has proven to be quite heavy in the past(Q4 of 2017, Q4 of 2016).  A close back above this level would be very encouraging. 

TOL should be considered a low risk buy near current levels.  A close back below $34.00 would violate the July low indicating the 40 week moving average is continuing to apply pressure.

Earnings are due August 21.  The August earnings report last year marked a major bottom.

At time of publication we do not have a position in TOL.



Closing In

From Ryan Detrick:   The current bull market is less than a month away from becoming the longest bull market ever….


Profit Margins?

We got your profit margins right here:


Profit margins for companies in the S&P 500 Index rose to 11.7% in the 2nd quarter,  their highest level in history.

Rollbacks matter...

Very bullish, but, there’s this from legendary investor Jeremy Grantham “Profit margins are probably the most mean-reverting series in finance, and if profit margins do not mean-revert,  then something has gone badly wrong with capitalism.” 

Invest wisely my friends.

More on Jeremy Grantham:

Hat tip Charlie Bilello


Magic Wand

The US manufacturing job market hasn’t been this strong in over 20 years


  • The July jobs report, released Friday, fell short of topline expectations.
  • But it showed that the manufacturing sector added 37,000 jobs and has added 327,000 jobs over the past 12 months.
  • The 327,000 jobs added over the past 12 months is the highest 12-month total since April 1995.


Rollbacks matter

Read the whole thing

‘Fini Flight’


From  Col. Christopher J. Niemi, 3rd Wing commander, conducts his “fini flight” in an F-22 Raptor, July 19, 2018, at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, Alaska. Lt. Gen. Kenneth S. Wilsbach, commander of Alaskan North American Aerospace Defense Command Region, Alaskan Command, U.S. Northern Command, and Eleventh Air Force, flew as Niemi’s wingman. (U.S. Air Force photo by Jamal Wilson)

Apple Rising


Apple reported blow out earnings yesterday.  The stock surged to new all time highs on the news and is extending the gains today.  AAPL now sports a one trillion dollar market cap.  Not bad for a company that was pronounced dead 22 years ago:


Hat tip Howard Lidzon

Cash Is Not Trash

But you do have to shop around:


Hat tip Charlie Bilello

U.S Manufacturing Is On Fire

The latest ADP report shows 219,000 new jobs were added in July(185,000 expected).  Over the last 19 months: 836,000 new manufacturing jobs vs. prior 19 months only 26,000.


We were told these jobs were never coming back: 


Rollbacks matter.

Hat tip Charles Payne

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As Money Managers and Traders, the mission of our Blog and Radio Show is to go on record and further educate our readers and listeners in technical analysis and proper money management across all asset classes.

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To Your Success,

Doug & Gary