Author Archive

Black Monday is Nothing More Than a Speck


Economic Growth Is Not A Mystery

Yet, Democrats just don’t get it.  Great weekend read here from Peter Ferrara

Postwar Bulls


On track for the greatest bull market of all time. 

The 1987 Crash, Today



1987 chart

Hat tip Dana Lyons

Crazy Bernie Doesn’t Get It

This is great, key bit:  On Wednesday evening, Cruz and Sanders debated each other on the GOP’s tax plan. Cruz truly slammed the floor with his socialist colleague in the Senate, explaining why his favorite Robin Hood analogy is way, way, way off.

Hat tip Stephen Green

Trump’s Tax Plan Gets High Marks, From Liberal College Students

This is just great stuff.  From  The lede:

President Donald Trump’s proposal for comprehensive tax reform was almost immediately dismissed as heartless and impractical by his political opponents.

But what would some of those opponents think if they were told the same plan was being proposed by someone they adore—Senator Bernie Sanders?

Cost of attending George Washington University:  $68,275.00

Read the whole thing www.campusreform,org

Inside The S&P 500 Index, Considerable Ugliness

There were a number of major breakdowns inside the S&P 500 Index on Tursday.  After reporting their latest quarterly results these four stocks were under heavy selling pressure:


BK fell nearly 3% on over double its average volume.  Just last week the stock reached new 2017 highs.  Today it closed at new October lows.  We expect more downside.  Initial target=$51.60.




GPC was the number two loser in the SP 500 today with an 8.5% drop.  Quite a reversal from yesterday’s close at new October highs.  The stock opened today’s session with a massive downside gap that dropped shares well into new October low territory.  GPC filled a huge breakout gap($88.10)and managed a slight bounce in the afternoon.  The stock could stabilize near this area while overhead pressure builds.



Dover ended the day with a 4.35% loss on its heaviest volume of the year.  Last week the stock reached new 52 week highs.  Today it finished well below the initial October lows.  There is solid support near today’s low($87.65/July high).  It would be a very impressive hold if this zone limits further downside.




PM took out major support near the $110.00 area.  This key zone held the April, May, July and September lows.  Downside volume reached its heaviest level of the year.  We expect more downside.  Initial target is the 2016 high($104.00).

At time of publication we are long PM and BK in some managed accounts.

PayPal Has Had a Great Run This Year

The stock is up over 65% this year.  Tonight PYPL will report its third quarter earnings report.  We would be a buyer on weakness. 


More here in our latest column on

We are long PYPL in some managed accounts. 

30 Year Anniversary of Black Monday

More here:

Goldman Sachs Sees a Bear

The lede:  Goldman Sachs has circulated a fascinating but scary research note to clients suggesting that the probability of stocks entering a bear market in the next 24 months currently stands at about 88%, based on the history of previous bear markets.

Well, this bull market is certainly getting long in the tooth.  The S&P 500 Index is currently tracing out its second longest rally in history: 

goldman sachs bear market 1

At some point, something’s gotta ‘give’.  According to Goldman’s ‘GS Bear Market Indicator’, which is now at 67%, something big may ‘give’ within the next two years.  Key bit:  Historically, when the indicator is at 67%, there is an 88% chance of stocks falling into a bear market in two years’ time.

goldman sachs bear market 4

However, the danger of a new bear in the near term remains quite small(35%):

More:  Bear markets are triggered in three different ways, Oppenheimer et al argue:

  • “Cyclical” bear markets are trigged by rising interest rates and recessions;
  • “Event-driven” bears come from negative economic shocks like war or emerging market crises;
  • “Structural” bears come from financial bubbles.

And when the bear does come… Goldman created this diagram based on an average of historic data. Typical bear markets feature a false “bounce,” in which stocks decline suddenly but then recover, reassuring investors (who then get crushed in the months afterwards) or giving clever investors a second chance to get the heck out of stocks:

goldman sachs bear market 2

Read the whole thing:

Hat tip


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