The metals continue to get hammered.  Silver is testing another support level.

Screen Shot 2018-08-15 at 6.26.10 AM

Small Business Optimism Continues To Rise

Rollbacks matter…

Small Business Optimism(107.9)in the U.S. is now at its second highest reading in history.  The record high was set way back in 1983(108.0). 



Hat tip Charlie Bilello

State Street Testing Major Support This Week


At his week’s low shares of State Street have stretched the drop from the January 2018 highs to just over 27%.  This ugly sell off included seven straight lower monthly highs as layers of support consistently gave way.  For patient investors the end result is very low risk entry opportunity now that major support has come into play. 

Back on July 20th STT suffered its worst loss of the year.  This 7.4% earnings inspired flush began with a huge downside gap that drove shares to fresh 2018 lows.  STT reached another new low this month but selling pressure has begun to ease noticeably.  Downside exhaustion appears to be setting in.

Trading notes:  This week STT is testing the upper band of a major support zone.  The $82.50 area represents a 50% retracement of the powerful rally off the 2016 lows.  From the January/July double bottom that year the stock surged over 100% by the start of this year.  Currently STT is nearly as oversold(weekly MACD)as it was while putting in a major bottom in the first quarter of 2016. 

Other key levels in this support area include the 2015 and 2016 highs($81.25-$81.90).  The lower band is marked by the 40 week moving average($79.50).  Back in late 2016 this moving average held an important low just weeks prior to the election inspired bull run.

We are long STT in some managed accounts.

The Longest…Ever

Next week the current bull market will become the longest in history:


Hat tip Ryan Detrick


Testing major support again.  Will it hold?

Screen Shot 2018-08-13 at 8.48.40 PM


Operating Margins?

We got our operating margins right here:



From Charlie Bilello:   S&P 500 profit margins rose to 11.6% in the 2nd quarter, their highest level in history.


Screen Shot 2018-08-13 at 8.08.25 AM

Every Picture Tells A Story


Hat tip Markus Koch

Commodity Carnage Continues

New all-time lows for the DBA this week:



The Agriculture ETF(DBA) is now down 60% from its 2008 peak.

Somethings gotta give…

DBA Explained:

The Invesco DB Agriculture Fund tracks an index of 10 agricultural commodity futures contracts. It selects contracts based on the shape of the futures curve to minimize contango.


Agriculture   75%    Livestock       25%

Top 10 Holdings

S Soybean 14.15%
CC Cocoa 12.70%
KC Coffee ‘C’ 12.48%
W Wheat 11.88%
LC Live Cattle 11.66%
FSB Sugar 11.40%
C Corn 9.87%
LH Lean Hogs 8.29%
FC Cattle Feeder 4.23%
CT Cotton No.2 3.34%

Hat tip Charlie Bilello

It’s Very Quiet Out There

For the S&P 500 Index, this could be the least volatile August in history…


Somethings gotta give.

Hat tip Charlie Bilello

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To Your Success,

Doug & Gary