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Comparing Four Major Bear Market Recoveries

4-bad-bears

   We are now 1865 days past the 2007 bottom.    Is a turning point near?  Major bear market history indicates the potential for a major pullback is strong.  More here from Doug Short:  http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Four-Totally-Bad-Bears.php?WT.rss_f=dshortRSS&WT.rss_ev=a&WT.rss_a=The+Four+Totally+Bad+Bear+Recoveries%3A+Where+Are+We+Now%3F

IBM To Cut Over 100,000 Jobs

    A report out today(unconfirmed)says IBM is about to let over 100,000 workers go in a major restructuring plan. 

 More here from Sky News:  http://news.sky.com/story/1415024/ibm-to-cut-more-than-110000-jobs-report-says

The Fourth Quarter Is Shaping Up As The Worst In Years

expectations S&P_0

Early estimates for the fourth quarter where for 11.4% growth,  now the S&P 500 is expected to earn 3.5%.  That is quite a plunge.  More here from Zerohedge.com: 

 In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings and revenue below expectations to date. The aggregate dollar-level earnings reported by these 37 companies is 0.4% below the aggregate dollar-level earnings estimated for these 37 companies. The aggregate dollar-level revenue reported by these 37 companies is 1.2% below the aggregate dollar-level revenue estimated for these 37 companies.

As a result, even though more companies have beat earnings and revenue estimates to date than missed earnings and revenue estimates, the surprise percentage (which reflects the aggregate difference between actual results and estimated results) is negative for both earnings (-0.4%) and revenue (-1.2%).

More here:  As a final reminder, some time just before the Lehman failure, forward EPS were tracking at 100. A few months later the number dropped by 40%. So for all those who are using the current forward 12 month P/E ratio of 16.5x, a number which is well above the 5- and 10-year average forward PE of 13.6x and 14.1x as a benchmark for cheapness, be very careful.
We believe the upcoming week is pivotal.  It is packed with key earnings results from companies like 3M, Texas Instruments, Microsoft, Norfolk Southern, Proctor & Gamble, United Technologies and Apple.  A lower close for the week would certainly put the bulls on edge. 

Hitler’s Futures Account Goes Negative

From Zerohedge.com:  Hitler Realizes He Was Short Swiss Francs:  http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-23/friday-humor-hitler-realizes-he-was-short-swiss-francs

Radio Show 1/23/14

Next Saturday’s show will air at 9 AM instead of 8 AM

http://www.financialnewsandtalk.com/marketwrap/DougMcKay_/dougmckay%20%20012315.mp3

United Parcel Service Hammered After Warning

ups

           UPS is getting hit hard today.  Volume has reached levels not seen in years as the stock falls nearly 10%.  This is quite a reversal from yesterday’s close at new all time highs.    It appears the Christmas shipping season didn’t pan out as strong as management expected.   More from MarketWatch.com:    United Parcel Service, Inc. warned of disappointing fourth-quarter and full-year results, as higher-than-expected seasonal expenses and currency headwinds dragged down earnings.  Chief Executive David Abney called the fourth-quarter results “disappointing” and said the company plans to reduce operating costs and implement new pricing strategies.

Stock Market’s Fate Depends On The Next Six Days

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-markets-fate-depends-on-the-next-six-days-2015-01-23

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About Us

Welcome fellow traders and investors,

As Money Managers and Traders, the mission of our Blog and Radio Show is to go on record and further educate our readers and listeners in technical analysis and proper money management across all asset classes.

Our methods are not the traditional advice you hear repeated and repackaged over and over again, but that’s exactly the point and the reason why we know how to advance and prosper in every kind of market.

To Your Success,

Doug & Gary