Key bit from Charles Hugh-Smith: What do we make of a stock market that’s been “saved” seven times in a mere seven months? Saved from what, you ask? Saved from rolling over, of course; after six years of upside, the current uptrend is getting long in tooth, and evidence of global recession is mounting.
What’s “saved” the market seven times in seven months? The usual burps of hot air: the Federal Reserve issued more mewlings (zero rates forever), Greece was “saved” again, China’s crumbling stock bubble was “saved” again, and so on.
Hat tip Zerohedge.com
Very similar to Gold, Silver could trend lower based on this Monthly Chart. In this case $ 10.
However, there is support here and it may never see 10. So what’s the point? If it starts to breakout we buy. If it then rolls over we get stopped out and wait until it looks highly probable again.
Doug On Gold
The capex recovery is officially dead – fixed investment as a % of GDP dropped to the lowest since Q2 2012.
More color on the economy from WSJ.com: “The economic expansion–already the worst on record since World War II–is weaker than previously thought, according to newly revised data.”
Key bit: From 2012 through 2014, the economy grew at an all-too-familiar rate of 2% annually, according to three years of revised figures the Commerce Department released Thursday. That’s a 0.3 percentage point downgrade from prior estimates. The revisions were released concurrently with the government’s first estimate of second-quarter output.
Since the recession ended in June 2009, the economy has advanced at a 2.2% annual pace through the end of last year. That’s more than a half-percentage point worse than the next-weakest expansion of the past 70 years, the one from 2001 through 2007. While there have been highs and lows in individual quarters, overall the economy has failed to break out of its roughly 2% pattern for six years.
The US economy grew at a rate of 2.3% in the second quarter, below consensus expectations of 2.5%. Key bit: The much anticipated Q2 GDP number with prior revisions is out and, as expected, Atlanta Fed’s 2.4% estimate was once again nearly spot on, with the advance release coming in at 2.3%, below Wall Street’s consensus estimate of 2.5%. But more importantly, as part of the annual revision to prior GDP data, one which as we observed would include the infamous “double seasonal adjustments”, both Q1 2014 and 2015 GDP prints, the “winter” collapse, was revised well higher, with Q1 2014 increase from -2.1% to -0.9%, while last quarter’s final GDP which had printed at -0.2% is now 0.6%.
Hat tip Zerohedge.com
The VIX briefly dipped below 12.00 today. The entire rally(VIX)during the recent sell off has been completely retraced. Considering the turmoil that has been simmering just below the surface(incredibly narrow leadership)this measure of investor complacency is simply stunning. As Northman Trader noted today, this pattern is beginning to look very similar to late 2014. The S&P 500 fell just over 5% mid December before mounting a sharp rally into year end.