“A MERE 5% of the Big Money men and women are self-described bears today, down from 10% six months ago. The higher the market has climbed, it seems, the more ambivalent erstwhile bears have grown.”
82% bullish US Stocks, 12% bullish US Treasuries.
A great read, enjoy: http://online.barrons.com/articles/u-s-money-managers-turn-cautious-1429925071
Mattel has had a rough 2015, until April 6th. Since the March low MAT has rallied over 35% and is now re testing its 200 day moving average. At today’s close the stock is less than $1.00 away from returning to its 2015 peak. We’ve held MAT in client accounts since late last year and have taken an incredible amount of heat from the position. Our belief was the company’s very generous dividend(5.25%)was safe and a turnaround for the company was ahead. The powerful rally this month, which featured back to back record weekly upside volume, confirms our view. In addition Goldman Sachs upgraded the toy maker today to ‘buy’ from ‘neutral’. In the near term we expect a pullback but believe more upside is ahead for the company.
More on the Goldman Sachs upgrade from thestreet.com: http://www.thestreet.com/story/13125817/1/mattel-mat-stock-climbing-today-on-goldman-sachs-upgrade.html?puc=TSMKTWATCH&cm_ven=TSMKTWATCH
Microsoft had a huge day. The stock lead the Dow Jones Industrials with a 10% gain on its second heaviest upside trade in well over a year. This earnings inspired surge pushed the stock back up to its 2015 high just under $48.00. MSFT is one of our core holdings and is in most of our managed accounts. We expect more upside for the stock and will be adding on weakness.
Key bit: The NYSE margin debt data is about a month old when it is published. The latest debt level is up 2.5% month-over-month and at a record high. Real (inflation-adjusted) debt rose 1.9% month-over-month and also at a record high.
More on Durable Goods Orders for March, from MarketWatch.com: A key measure of how much U.S. businesses plan to invest fell in March for the seventh month in a row, underscoring the damage done by a stronger dollar and cheaper oil to American manufacturers and energy producers.
Orders for durable U.S. goods jumped a seasonally adjusted 4% in March, but the increase was driven almost entirely by higher demand for autos, commercial jets and military hardware – volatile categories that can gyrate sharply from month to month.
So-called core orders, which strip out military goods and jumbo jetliners, dropped 0.5% to extend a slide that began last September.
“Business investment is a definite disappointment,” said Neil Dutta, head of economics at Renaissance Macro Research.
Read the whole thing: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/business-investment-sinks-for-seventh-month-2015-04-24
Key bit from Zerohedge.com: Durable Goods New Orders (ex-Transports) fell 0.2% MoM (missing expectations of a 0.3% rise) for the biggest YoY drop since 2012, some -1/9%, and under the covers it is ugly – Capital Goods New Orders non-defense, ex-aircraft have now fallen for 7 straight months, missing expectatons dramatically (-0.5% vs +0.3% exp.). These numbers have never fallen for this long a period without a recession.
Read the whole thing: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-24/worst-drop-core-durable-goods-december-2012