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Early Earnings Data Has Been Very Strong


From Blaine Rollins:  “Most important to the markets last week was the early slice of earnings releases. Google, Intel, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup all reported numbers better than expected and the stocks reacted with sharply higher moves. Bespoke showed the early earnings data as the best in 15 quarters, but this week will be another test as about a quarter of the S&P 500 will report. Earnings are the clear driver to stock prices right now so keep a sharp eye.”

From  “This is our first look at the earnings and revenue beat rates for the second quarter reporting period that began earlier this month.  Last earnings season, the earnings beat rate hit its lowest level of the current bull market with a reading below 60%.  So far this season, 64.2% of companies have beaten estimates.  Keep in mind that only 10% of companies have reported so far this season, so it’s still very early.”

More here, including another chart:

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Jeremy Grantham Manages $117 Billion

From MoneyNews:  Another horrific stock market crash is coming, and the next bust will be “unlike any other” we have seen.

That’s the message from Jeremy Grantham, co-founder and chief investment strategist of GMO, a Boston-based firm with $117 billion in assets under management.

Grantham pulls no punches when assigning responsibility for the coming financial carnage. In a recent interview with The New York Times, he calls Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen “ignorant” and says the Federal Reserve all but killed the economic recovery.

Grimly, he adds, “We have never had this before. It’s going to be very painful for investors.”

More here:

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U.S. 30 Year Bond Yields Offer Relative Value


         The yield on the 30 year bond here in the U.S.  is very attractive.   Nowhere in the world can you find yields even close.  It makes perfect sense that the US long bond will remain well bid in the near term.  The very popular short fixed income trade may continue to be very painful through year end. 

This is why markets shrug off Ukraine plane crash, Gaza and other geopolitical flashpoints

Global GDP Estimates Are Collapsing


Since early 2013 fully fourth-fifths of the 40% rise in the S&P 500 is due to multiple expansion, not earnings growth from a tepid economy.

More here, with additional charts, from

UBS Warns: “Reduce Risk Over The Full Spectrum Of Assets”

Key bit:  “Our economic surprise index has been very highly correlated with the S&P 500 until the beginning of last year. Since then the market has continued to rally with little fundamental improvement to support it. This divergence is becoming uncomfortably large.”

Entire article is here, from Wold Richter:

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About Us

Welcome fellow traders and investors,

As Money Managers and Traders, the mission of our Blog and Radio Show is to go on record and further educate our readers and listeners in technical analysis and proper money management across all asset classes.

Our methods are not the traditional advice you hear repeated and repackaged over and over again, but that’s exactly the point and the reason why we know how to advance and prosper in every kind of market.

To Your Success,

Doug & Gary